frozen julep

Happy Thurby–Pick 4 Analysis

Happy #Thurby everyone. You have to love the Bluegrass spirit. When your day at the races becomes too expensive and overcrowded, just add an extra day to the Derby holiday weekend and claim that one as your own. We’re excited to partake in our first #Thurby experience. While the Oaks and Derby cards promise to offer plenty of betting opportunities worthy of conserving bullets, the late #Thurby Pick 4 is an admirable appetizer. Granted, it’s a pretty dicey Pick 4—starting with a deserving 3-5 horse, followed by a route MSW then a two year old stakes, and finishing with a turf sprint featuring horses with limited turf experience. But, whatever. We are less than 48 hours to Derby Day! So channel some of that Bluegrass spirit and start the wagering early. To help you better invest your time on making that first mint julep of Derby weekend, we’ve put together our thoughts on the #Thurby Pick 4. Good luck.


Race 8: 1 Mile Turf OC $100K

This race centers around the heavy favorite, Reload. By far the class of the race and a winner the last three times he stepped down to OC company. While the rail may not be ideal, there’s not a ton of speed in here so he can likely find a good position. If he runs his race, it’s over. But he’s 7 and seems to run better fresh, so maybe, maybe you can get creative here. Everything else should offer a price. If Reload fails to fire, I’ll have a B ticket with the 2, 3, and 5. The 5 in particular has strong turf form and may be best suited for a mile. 20-1 morning line and $10 ROI for trainer/jock in the past year.

A: 1

B: 2, 3, 5

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, Fillies and Mares, 1M 1/16th

This is a group of previously disrespected maidens, with every starter, except the 3, having previously raced at double digit odds. While the 7 has burned some money, everyone else has often outrun their odds. Following that theme, we’ll go with the 6, Ziny, on top. She added blinkers, stretched out, and just missed last time. Blinkers stay on and although adding a panel, we’re hoping she’s built some stamina. No other speed signed on so hoping Jimmy can lull them to sleep.

Lil Sweet Sea turned in two strong efforts before trouble in her last. Second off the layoff for Walkabout who showed improvement going from 6f to 7f.

For value, we like seeing Debby d’Oro stretch out and she also moves a little further off the rail. Perhaps she breaks better with this group and is more interested down the stretch. Finally, Blanket Boy had all sorts of trouble in hher debut but still hung on for fourth. Took some time and has been training steadily at CD.

A: 6,5,7

B: 9, 4

Race 10: The Kentucky Juvenile–$100k 2 year old stakes, 5F

Easy thing to do here is bet the Wards and hope for the longest odds of the uncoupled trio. Seriously though, with most of these horses graduating from a single 4.5 f race early in their 2 year old seasons, it’s a difficult task to pick a winner. What we do know though, is that this is WW’s game. But we’ll try to add some insight.

Lady Aurelia was not only the most expensive of the Ward runners, but she was also the most impressive in her debut. Can she beat the boys again while facing up front pressure from the 3, 5, 6, and 7? She’s a must use, but at 8/5, it’s worth expanding your tickets. Because this race is filled with speed, Bluegrass Gem and Hey Mike may get a set up. Bluegrass Gem closed well late, gets an extra panel and likely a fast pace. He’s 15-1. Hey Mike figures to sit a stalking trip on the outside and may get first run on the lead pack.

A: 4, 8,9

B: 3,7

Race 11: Allowance $52k 59(f) Turf

A difficult to handicap turf sprint caps off this unorthodox pick 4 sequence. Nine of the ten entrants have tried turf only two times or less in their careers, with four first time turfers. John Q Public is one that seems to do his best running on the turf. The distance may be shorter than he prefers, but there’s not a ton of early speed in here, so possible he could run away late. His other competition up front is Peppermint Zip, who is likely faster and showed marked improvement on the turf.

After those two, the race is pretty wide open. Full Heart offers the best value. His lone CD turf start was solid and he figures to make a run late. Although we note he hasn’t run his best off the bench. Will also use the other logical horses in here, all of which have some flaws: 1 (first time turf); 4 (18 month layoff); and the 9 (worst career Beyer from lone turf start).

A: 3,8

B: 1, 4, 10, 9

Quick thought on ticket building: The first race will be the most telling for this sequence. If Reload walks, this sequence becomes far less exciting and profitable. Thus, we are likely to cycle B’s in that race through additional combos in hopes of being well positioned for a decent score should Reload misfire.

Good luck, everyone!

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