Call the statistics inaccurate, or criticize the method in which they are collected, but regardless, in the television world it is undisputed that Nielsen Ratings are as good as gold. Higher Nielsen ratings generate higher advertising dollars. And advertising dollars fuel commercial television. Period. Thus, for a sporting event to garner major dollars for a TV deal, it needs to promise and evidence desired Nielsen Ratings.
Such is the case for horse racing and the Breeders’ Cup. In fact, given the doomsday predictions for a “dying sport”, the Breeders’ Cup ratings are even more critical as they represent the sport’s single opportunity to prove that it has a future beyond just the Triple Crown. So for an event that’s success is often measured by numbers such as on track attendance and handle, I submit that this year, in particular, the most important number may be the Nielsen Rating earned for the primetime broadcast of the Classic and (most likely) the Mile.
For an event which has seen a steady decline in ratings over the past 30 years, the perception of positive television ratings and lucrative contracts that come with it are extremely important. This is especially true in 2014 where the Breeders’ Cup and NBC have gone “all in”. In 2012, NBC regained control of the Classic and broadcasted it on its main network in primetime. The moves sparked a sizeable boost in ratings. Just a year later, however, the same recipe for success failed as ratings dropped significantly. To NBC’s credit though, they didn’t waiver. To the contrary, NBC increased its commitment to the Breeders’ Cup by agreeing to eleven program dates providing coverage of the Win and You’re In series from June through October. The Classic will once again be shown in primetime. As such, these 2014 ratings could prove judgment day for NBC and perhaps its future investment in the Breeders’ Cup.
Unfortunately, concern over Breeders’ Cup ratings has grown greatly over the past decade. From 1984 through 1989, the Breeders Cup hovered around a respectable Nielsen Rating of 4.0. By today’s standards, that would place the Breeders’ Cup on par with events such as golf’s British Open and the highest watched game of the Stanley Cup. It would be well ahead of Wimbledon.
| Year | Rating | Network | Host |
| 1997 | 2.2 | NBC | Hollywood |
| 1998 | 2.2 | NB | Churchill |
| 1999 | 1.9 | NBC | Gulfstream |
| 2000 | 1.8 | NBC | Churchill |
| 2001 | 1.7 | NBC | Belmont |
| 2002 | 2.0 | NBC | Arlington |
| 2003 | 1.8 | NBC | Santa Anita |
| 2004 | 1.4 | NBC | Lone Star |
| 2005 | 1.7 | NBC | Belmont |
| 2006 | .6 | ESPN | Churchill |
| 2007 | .7 | ESPN | Monmouth |
| 2008 | 1.2 | ESPN | Santa Anita |
| 2009 | 1.1 | ESPN | Santa Anita |
| 2010 | 3.1 | ESPN | Churchill |
| 2011 | 1.2 | ESPN | Churchill |
| 2012 | 2.2 | NBC | Santa Anita |
| 2013 | 1.4 | NBC | Santa Anita |
From 1990 through 1996, the ratings decreased but still averaged in the mid 2’s, now about equal with Wimbledon and the Little League World Series. In the late 1990’s and 2000’s, however, ratings continued to decrease, reaching a low of .6 in 2006. For comparison, such a rating is on the same level as the MLS Cup and the WNBA Finals.
For further comparrison, here is a link to a PDF featuring a well done graph displaying annual ratings for racing’s four biggest days. http://reformracing.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/nielsenratings4.pdf
Interestingly, the low 2006 number, followed by an equally uninspiring 2007 rating, coincided with ESPN’s coverage of the event. Aside from a Zenyatta fueled 2010 super rating of 3.1, the other five ESPN Breeders’ Cup broadcasts represent the five lowest in the history of the event.
In a savvy move, and perhaps one of desperation, Breeders Cup returned to NBC and moved the Classic to a primetime spot. For NBC, a network dedicated to Notre Dame football (who plays maybe one night home game a year), it allowed them to feature fall sporting event content at night while many of their major network competitors featured college football games. The results paid off immediately with a 2.2 rating in 2012 which was the highest rated non-Zenyatta Breeders’ Cup since 1998. For a year, it appeared that the Breeders’ Cup’s once steady TV ratings had returned and the event would become a gold mine for NBC. But then, in 2013, the ratings dropped significantly to a 1.4.
Why? Some believe the 2.2 number from 2012 was inflated, perhaps because coverage immediately followed a triple overtime game between undefeated Notre Dame and Pitt. Others argue last year’s number was the anomaly because it went head to head with a then highly anticipated matchup of two unbeatens–Miami and Florida State.
So what is the outlook for this year’s ratings? On the competition front, as of now, the best college football matchup for November 1, Auburn v. Ole Miss, will likely be an afternoon game because SEC network CBS has already committed to Notre Dame v. Navy in primetime. Although every Notre Dame game draws a high rating, a matchup with Navy is unlikely to dominate the airwaves. ABC’s game of the week is Louisville and Florida State, a watchable game but far from a must see (although a Louisville game could distract a traditionally horse racing centric market). Without a FSU v. Miami caliber game on television competing for ratings, the Breeders’ Cup could be optimally situated to attract uncommitted sports fans.
Of course, the other consideration in determining a Breeders’ Cup rating in the marketability of the product itself. This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic will likely feature the star power of the Triple Crown series springtime darling California Chrome and spoiler Tonalist. Although not of Triple Crown fame, undefeated three old Shared Belief is capturing plenty of headlines and ensures that sports talk guru Jim Rome will promote the event. Also, the likely prelude to the Classic shown on primetime will be the great Wise Dan’s quest to tie Golidkova’s record of three straight mile victories. There is no doubt that NBC will have plenty of material to work with to promote this year’s event. And to that end, I saw a Breeders’ Cup tease this weekend while watching the Notre Dame game.
Unfortunately, there are too many variables to predict what the Nielsen Ratings will be for this year’s Classic. However, given NBC’s efforts to promote the event, the star power which will likely be on the track for races being covered in primetime, and the apparent lack of any major sporting competition, this may be make or break time for the Breeders’ Cup. A repeat of last year’s numbers, or worst case scenario, a decrease, will create serious doubt that a consistent return to 1998 like numbers is possible. If the ratings increase, however, to a 1.8 or higher, I think it vindicates NBC’s commitment and provides leverage for the Breeders’ Cup in negotiating a future TV deal for its Championships and the Win and You’re In series.
In sum, I place the over/under for NBC’s coverage of the 2014 Breeders’ Cup at a Nielsen Rating of 1.7. And as a betting man, I’m taking the over.
