The wait is over. Breeders’ Cup 31 is finally upon us.
While not a “picks site,” the gambling aspect of the Sport of Kings cannot be ignored, and we here at Thorobros certainly do not intend to ignore it this weekend. The Breeders’ Cup offers some of the best betting opportunities of the year and we hope to be fortunate enough to cash one or two “big ones.”
But in addition to the financial incentives, picking a winner also brings the satisfaction of being right. It’s a great a feeling when your hours of homework payoff and you realize you outsmarted 95% of the betting population.
In that spirit of competition, we here at Thorobros are having a little Battle of the Bro Picks, where each of us will pick one horse, per Breeders’ Cup race, for a $2 across the board bet. We’re still working out the details of what the winner gets, but it will likely involve numerous beers and a volcano burrito from Taco Bell.
Internal “handicapping contests” among friends offer great side action, are easy for new fans to comprehend, and can accommodate any budget. We always encourage this activity when we have a group of friends at the track, especially when many of those friends are new to the sport. Give it a try this weekend with the Breeders’ Cup races, and definitely let us know how it goes.
Best of luck everyone.
Juvenile Turf
Sean: I originally picked Aktabantay here until I learned of his demise. This is usually a Euro dominated race but with my fellow Bros snagging the other two logical Euros, I’m going to look domestic and to the longer odds of an uncoupled entry—International Star. IS gets Johnny V, turns back, goes from synth to turf, which is a winning move for Maker, and is the longer odds of the Ramsey team. Also, with Ramsey’s Kitten and Hootenanny gunning for the lead, I’m hopeful this late runner will have a sold pace to close into at a big price.
Pick: International Star
Johnny: Commemorative. Euro-dominated race since it’s inception. I like that he had been 1 mile and is a graded stakes winner as well. Gets a good post and may get first jump at the sprinter-speedsters who are stretching out.
Pick: Commemorative.
Nolan: War Envoy - this Euro special has been right on the doorstep in group 2 and 3 stakes across the pond, and that form should translate well here. Aidan O’Brien is sure to have him primed and ready to go, and he’s got this Bro’s favorite Euro jock, Ryan Moore, in the irons. Being stateside, he also adds lasix, which adds to the appeal. If you like racing post ratings (who doesn’t) then you like this fella, as he’s never backed up. If you are looking to start you’re pick 4 right, to quote the late, great Warren Zevon, “send the Envoy.”
Pick: War Envoy
Dirt Mile
Sean: I was tempted to go chalk city here–just to ensure that I was “on the board”– but I know the flack I would take from my fellow Thorobros if I selected Goldencents. I was also tempted to take the Chilean Sea Bass who’s been rifling bullets at Santa Anita since he swam up the Pacific Coast around Labor Day. In the end though, I’m going to split the difference and go with Tapiture—who offers some value and has also been at Santa Anita for weeks firing strong works for a barn that usually doesn’t ask much in the morning. Hoping for a Vicar’s In Trouble and GC speed duel that sets up for this stalker.
Pick: Tapiture
Nolan: This race appears a bit more logical on paper than the prior race. But I think in both this race and the distaff, Tapit is going to justify that $150k stud fee (distaff pick spoiler alert). Tapiture comes into this race off three straight nice efforts and had a fantastic Beyer progression. The horse is 7/11 in the money lifetime, so he likes to grab those checks. Plus, ever since he teamed up with Rosie, he’s got two dubs and a second to Bayern on a track that favored speed (and Bayern got loose on the lead). Three year olds have had success in the dirt mile, and this bro expects that to continue big time.
Pick: Tapiture
Johnny:Although Golden Cents is a deserving favorite, I want to take a shot here with a price (a common theme for me). Carve has predominately been running at greater than 1 mile, although it appears to be his best distance. His shortening up should help, and look for him to be right behind golden cents an the first flight of horses. He should get a piece, or even take it all if Golden Cents doesn’t run his race.
Pick: Carve
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Sean: I would go Euro here as well, expect Osaila isn’t adding lasix and Qualify is starting from Row G of the grandstand. In the Jessamine, Rainha Da Bateria closed into ridiculous fractions you probably won’t see in this race. That said, her closing 5/16th in that race was an incredible 27.52. If RDB can show that kick here, I’m hopeful she’ll pick up some pieces.
Pick: Rainha da Bateria
Nolan: New York bias alert! That’s right, I’m going against the euros and my secret crush in this race, Sivoliere, because I am an unabashed NYRA homer. Lady Eli comes into this race undefeated, and gets a little turnback from a mile and a sixteenth to a flat mile. Her works at Belmont leading up to this have been fantastic. I do slightly worry about the cross country ship, but when you are a homer, you overlook details like that.
Pick: Lady Eli
Johnny: A T-bros favorite–Sivoliere. This horse is being moved to Chad Brown, had run it’s best races on firm footing in Europe, is getting Lasix for the first time and will be ridden by So CAL expert Gary Stevens. All of those things indicate that this horse will relish the firm turf of SA. But beware of Osaila who also has run best on firm ground in Europe.
Pick: Sivoliere
Distaff
Sean: I’m struggling with this race. In the end though, I like Iotapa. Sure Sadler is 0 for the Breeder’s Cup. However, this horse may be overlooked after missing the break in her prep. She has a huge win over the track and distance which came second off a layoff (an angler at play for her in this spot). I like her to sit right off the pace and get first run.
Pick: Iotapa
Chalk Nolan:Untapable – this horse is going to win this race. Once you place your bet on Untapable save yourself the energy and just wait. by. the. window. Cuz you are cashin that sumbitch. If you have any questions about my analysis, shoot me an email at thorobros@thorobros.com, but I really think this should be self evident.
Pick: Untapable
Johnny: A tough race for me. The two favorites are outside. If speed is holding, Close Hatches will be tough to beat. But if it isn’t, Untapable will make her earn it. But it is far from a two horse race and either way Iotapa will have something to say about it. The horse has tactical speed, and can run with any kind of pace. She also loves SA, with a 7-3-3-1 lifetime record. In this format she gets the nod, but is not this bros highest ran candidate for win honors.
Be sure to check back for updated standing and ongoing analysis. Also, be sure to follow us on Twitter @ThoroBros, for full on site coverage of the Breeders’ Cup. Good luck, everyone.
