Happy Derby Day!! Kentucky Oaks Day was a great success for the Thorobros. We finally hit the Kentucky Oaks Pick 4, a goal that we had been chasing for years—and one which had been tantalizingly close before. We are hoping that our handicapping stays on point, and that we continue our hot streak into the biggest race day of the year.
As usual, Churchill Downs has put together a spectacular Derby Day card. The Pick 4 features four graded stakes, each with star-studded fields. From a betting perspective, we unfortunately do not see as much value in the Derby card as we did in the Oaks card, but you have to play the hand you are dealt.
Race 8—The Distaff Turf Mile—Grade II—1 Mile
We see this race as something of a wide open affair, although the horses most likely to win are the logical selections. Let’s start with Coffee Clique, who comes into this race off a third place finish to two of her opponents here today in The Honey Fox at Gulfstream Park. Can she turn the tables today? We think she has a shot to do just that, as she will hopefully avoid a wide trip from the 5 post, and should stand to move forward in her second race off a long layoff. Her two rivals in The Honey Fox are both also strong contenders today, and of the pair, we like Sandiva better. Sandiva got the lead in the stretch of The Honey Fox, and then gave it up, but she was bumped at the start of that race, and was several lengths farther back than she likes to be that day. With a cleaner break, we believe that she will have more left in the tank to ward off any challengers down the lane.
Sandiva’s most likely late challenger is likely to be Lady Lara, the Mott trainee. Lady Lara likes to come from out of the clouds, and may get a solid pace to run at today. Further, she was the winner of The Honey Fox, having beaten these same main rivals at the same trip less than 45 days ago – so leave her off your tickets at your own risk. Finally, we felt that we needed to inject a price into our ticket. Of the longer shots signed on, we like Tepin best. Tepin is turning back from a 1 mile and 1/16 optional claimer at Gulfstream, which she won with a lifetime best Beyer speed figure. She has come in second over this trip in a Grade 2 stake at Del Mar, and she will be facing the same level today. Julien Leparoux in the irons and Mark Casse doing the training only add to the appeal. Include Tepin at 15/1 on the morning line.
Finally, we are including I’m Already Sexy as our B teamer. In addition to having a fantastic name, this horse has a nice chance at 15/1 on the morning line. She has 3 wins in 6 starts at a mile on the grass, and has a win over the Churchill sod. Further, both of her lifetime best performances from a Beyer speed figure perspective were run over a mile on turf – one at Kentucky Downs and the other at Santa Anita. Today’s race is I’m Already Sexy’s game – the question is whether she is good enough.
A: 3,4,5,8
B: 6
Race 9—The Churchill Downs—Grade II—7f
This is a julep race. Meaning go grab a julep and save your bullets for another race.
We wish this race was more exciting. But, the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner is back. He has been training like a beast. Baffert is 32% with long layoffs. Bayernis 2 for 2 at the distance. One potential knock—other than his even money odds? There is some other speed in here and Bayern’s best races have been with uncontested leads. Still, we think he’s a pretty clear single, especially considering how wide open other races appear to be.
If we were to take a shot at chalk busting, we’d likely add Pants On Fire in hopes that he gets first run. POF is second off a layoff and is running at 7f distance where he thrives.
Track Bias Watch: Last year’s Derby weekend sprints featured a heavy outside bias which could play against Bayern. Pay attention for whether track superintendent “Butch the Blade” is playing favorites on Saturday.
A: 2
B: 5
Race 10—The Woodford Reserve Turf Classic—Grade 1—1 Mile and 1/8
Yet another deep and contentious turf race on Derby Saturday. Given our single of Bayern in race 9, we are filling up our ticket here. We like Jack Milton best here, and at 5/1 on the morning line, he offers some value. He is coming off a win in the Markers 46 Mile at Keeneland, and owns a win over the Churchill Turf course. We also think the pace scenario sets up for him to get first run at the early leaders. Old favorite Stephanie’s Kitten is also a must-include on your multi-race wager tickets. She has 2 wins in 5 starts at the distance, along with a 2nd and a 3rd. She is also a perfect 3 for 3 over the Churchill grass. Our last “A” teamer also adds a little value to the ticket. Grand Arch, though marooned in the 12 post, has been coming off a steady stream of turf miles and has Beyer speed figures that put him right with the top horses in this field. He does have 1 win in 3 starts at this distance, so 1 mile and 1/8 is not beyond him. Further, at 8/1 he might be a key horse in what could otherwise be a chalky sequence.
Seek Again is also in with a chance here, and though this one will be flying late, he gets an extra 8th of a mile from his last race, the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He is coming first off a long layoff though, and may need this race. Perhaps more likely for a second or third place finish. Chocolate Ride is going to be gunning from the bell and we think is likely to get the early lead, perhaps uncontested. That is good enough for us at 12/1. We will include him, and we hope to be hanging on down the lane. Finally, Finnegan’s Wake is a fast horse that has been going longer. He needs a fast pace to rally into, however, and we have concerns about whether or not he will get it, particularly given that he will be going three furlongs shorter than his last race. Nevertheless, in his last effort at a mile and an eighth, he won a Grade II at Santa Anita with a 101 Beyer speed figure. He needs to be included.
A: 7,8,12
B: 5,9,10
Race 11—The Kentucky Derby—Grade 1—1 Mile and 1/4
Here it is, the biggest race of the year, and the most complicated to handicap. We should know better than to try to beat the chalk, right? Both Dortmund and American Pharaoh have been super and must be used. We can’t remember a Derby trail where no longshots won prep races. In all of the preps, we think there were only two winners paying double figures. To us, that suggests a clear divide between the top horses and everyone else.
All of that said, we think this race could completely fall apart. The race favorites, Carpe Diem, Materiality, Dortmund and AP all employ the same running style and all figure to be on or near the lead. The mile and a quarter distance, which concludes with that long Churchill stretch, may leave some favorites struggling to get the final sixteenth of a mile. If that happens, it could be bombs away.
Looking for capable closers, we’ve landed on Frosted, International Star, and Bolo. We also like first run types like Mubtaahij and Firing Line. We like Frosted the best of this group as he may be a new horse post throat surgery. He was super impressive in the Wood, closing into a snail’s pace without being ridden hard. Bolo is bred to run all day and his San Felipe effort was quite good. He is our best bet bomber in the race. If he can regain his form from the Felipe, he has a shot to pick off horses late, especially if the pace goes wild. A definite use underneath in trifectas.
All of that said, we think you have to use the Pletcher (2 and 3) and Baffert (8 and 18) duos in your Pick 4 tickets (and Materiality could offer great value) as coverage.
If you made us pick a top four “most likely winners”, it would be Dortmund, Frosted, Materiality and AP. But, it really is a wide open race. For Pick 4 purposes, you want to be alive to a lot of horses to feel safe.
A: 8, 18, 15, 3
B: 2, 6, 9, 10, 12
A Note on Ticket Building: While yesterday we successfully employed the A/B method to our Pick 4 ticket building, we are not married to that format. Looking at today’s A and B teams, we actually think we may be better suited to play a single “cave man” ticket. Thus, our plan (pending any track biases shown during the early races) is to play one ticket, will all of our A’s and B’s in every race, but for the 9th, where we will single Bayern.
Also, betting the Derby is extremely difficult. In the midst of crafting exacta and trifecta tickets, don’t forget to play you top choice to win, place and show. For many of these horses, their odds will never be this high again. At a minimum, you may as well cash a nice win, place and show tickets if your pick runs well.
Hope everyone has a great Derby Day crushing juleps and this late pick 4.
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