It’s a new year, and that means we have a new dope Thorobros series for all of you who have been missing us after the post-Breeders’ Cup hiatus. This series, cleverly named Derby Prep-onomics, is intended to evaluate each of the Kentucky Derby prep races which award Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Our goal is to evaluate the tracks that will host Kentucky Derby prep races to see what they are doing from a marketing and promotion standpoint. We will also hope to gauge the impact that hosting a Derby prep race has on the host track from an attendance, handle and publicity standpoint.
The idea for this series started with a theory. That theory is that one of the problems that ails horse racing is that it is pretty damn difficult to follow. When the Thorobros discuss this issue, one potential solution to that particular problem that continues to come up is the creation of series of races and events that people can easily grasp and remain engaged with. That particular solution is neither novel nor is it rocket science – indeed, it already exists in three different contexts in horse racing. The first is the “Road to the Kentucky Derby;” the second is the Triple Crown itself, and the third is the Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” series, which obviously culminates in the Breeders’ Cup. The Triple Crown series is so entrenched, historic and popular that an analysis of those three races is not likely to shed light on whether more comprehensive or all-encompassing racing series’ will increase the popularity of the sport. Therefore, we decided to test our hypothesis on the Road to the Kentucky Derby series.
The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” is relatively new – only now in its third year. The Kentucky Derby itself is undeniably extremely popular, bringing well over 100,000 fans to Churchill Downs every year, and garnering millions of viewers on television. Will the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” bring some of that first-Saturday-in-May magic to the tracks hosting qualifying races? Will casual or even non-fans be attracted to these prep races because of the connection to the Kentucky Derby? That’s what we hope to find out in Derby Prep-onomics.
Race: Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park
Track: Santa Anita Park
Qualifying Points: 10-4-2-1
Order of Finish: Calculator (3-5); Rock Shandy (21-1); Pioneerof the West (17-1); St. Joe Bay (15-1)
Pre-Race Marketing
The key to creating a cohesive, easy to follow racing series that will draw in new fans is to make sure that the potential new fans know about the racing series. Therefore, in the Thorobros’ view, it is really important that the tracks hosting Derby prep races publicize the fact that the future Kentucky Derby winner – the next California Chrome – might just be racing in their backyard that Saturday. In this regard, from the information I found, Santa Anita gets an F. In the week leading up to the race, there appeared to be little or no advertising about the Sham Stakes at all, and publication that did reference the Sham mentioned the Kentucky Derby only in passing. I was not able to find anything on the internet, including on Santa Anita’s website, that tied the Sham to the Derby qualification process or to a series of races.
There were some pre-Sham Stakes articles and publication that linked the Sham as a first step in the road to the Santa Anita Derby, but nothing that I was able to find put the Santa Anita Derby in the context of qualifying for or running in the Kentucky Derby.
On Track Attendance
The fact that there was a Kentucky Derby prep on the calendar had no noticeable impact on the on-track attendance. If anything, attendance was down on Sham day compared to other Saturdays early in the meet, although that likely had a lot to do with the poor weather on Sham day as well as the fact that the previous two Saturdays of the meet were during the Christmas-New Year’s period when many people had lighter work schedules. But for the purposes of this analysis, we think it is significant that for the first three Saturdays of the Santa Anita winter meeting, the attendance figures were 6,058, 8,302 and 5,462, respectively.
If anything, having a field of potential Derby starters ought to appreciably improve attendance, as the Kentucky Derby is the most notable and unassailable horse racing brand around. It is hard for us to believe that the drop in attendance for the Sham Stakes disproves our hypothesis, however, as if there was no marketing effort to tie the Sham Stakes to the Kentucky Derby, then we are left with a situation where none of the potential attendees were provided with the information that would have led to their attendance.
Handle
The handle figures also indicate that the fact that Santa Anita was running a Derby qualifier had no significant impact on the amount of money wagered on track. For the Saturday card contested on January 3, 2015, Santa Anita handled $11.7 million. One week later, on Sham Day, Santa Anita handled $10.7 million. Again, the weather was not perfect on Sham Day, but the tracks stayed fast and firm throughout the day, so you can’t chalk up the $1 million decrease in all-sources handle to an off track (note: there was one race taken off the turf, and field sizes were a bit smaller than the previous Saturday). Bottom line: you can argue whether there were specific reasons for the decrease in handle from week to week, but the fact of the matter is that it is pretty clear that the running of the Sham Stakes did not in any way increase betting attention on Santa Anita for Saturday, January 10.
Post-Race Publicity
The post-race publicity was similarly lacking any meaningful connection to the Kentucky Derby. Most outlets, including Santa Anita’s website, noted the fact that the finishers were awarded Kentucky Derby qualifying points, but there was no effort in any article or recap that I saw to evaluate the significance of those points or any analysis of the finishers real chances to move on to the Derby and potentially win. This is a particularly noteworthy omission for Santa Anita Park, as they have a real opportunity to use post-race publicity for the Sham to increase knowledge, visibility and public recognition of the next three Kentucky Derby prep races that are hosted by the track, culminating of course with the Santa Anita Derby. As so often seems to happen in horse racing, a meaningful race or event happens, and then just as quickly as it happens, it recedes.
While there is far from enough evidence from Sham day to make a definitive conclusion, I believe that the experience of Santa Anita is indicative of an industry wide problem: there is no significant effort by any of racing’s stakeholders to attract or entice new fans, or fans who have drifted from the sport, by putting races into easy to follow sequences and publicizing the series so that the average person hears about it and understands what is going on. There was no effort to put the Sham in context with its role in qualifying horses for the sport’s biggest day. Millions of people care about the Kentucky Derby each year – how many of us get asked by coworkers, friends, relatives, and acquaintances during the last week of April every year who we like in the Derby? Doesn’t it make sense that those some people might be interested in following the horses that will get into the Churchill Downs starting gate beginning in January? I find it hard to believe that a significant number of those people would not have at least a passing interest in watching and learning about a Derby qualifying race, if they knew the race was going on. Therefore, this Thorobro considers the Sham Stakes, based on publicity, marketing, handle and attendance, to be a missed opportunity.
And if you read all that just to see Calculator snag 10 points, here you go:
