Welcome to the Thorobros Pick 4 analysis for May 1, 2015, Kentucky Oaks Day. The Thorobros love the Kentucky Oaks. It is a fantastic day to go to the track, and even though there are more than 100,000 people at Churchill Downs, it still seems relatively quiet compared to the insanity of Derby Day. The Oaks Day All-Stakes Pick 4 also holds a special place in our hearts. In 2011, we had a live Pick 4 into St. Johns River, which was going to pay very nicely. Of course, we did not have Plum Pretty on our tickets. Needless to say, Plum Pretty held off a hard charging St. Johns River by a rapidly diminishing head, and the Thorobros were left prone on the floor of Philadelphia’s Center City Turf Club, which is never a place you want to be.
We promise, the Turf Club looks nothing like this in real life.
But with each spring comes renewal and rebirth, and the Thorobros are back again to chase the Kentucky Oaks Pick 4. It is our great white whale. Perhaps this is the year, or perhaps we will once again be gasping for air on the well-worn carpet of our local off track betting establishment. We consider it a win either way.
Race 8—The Alysheba—Grade II—1 Mile and 1/16th
Spoiler alert: we did not get creative here. Our “A” horses are the two chalks, Protonico and Honor Code. Both jump off the page as the class of the race from a figure perspective, and Protonico is coming off of a very impressive win in the Ben Ali, where he had it his way on the front end. Normally, the ‘Bros would play Protonico to bounce, but it looks like the exact same strategy is likely to work for Protonico and Johnny V on Oaks Day. There is simply no speed signed on for this race, with the possible exception of Noble Bird, who will be outside of Protonico and is simply not as fast. Further, if there does end up being pace to the race and Protonico is challenged on the front end, the most likely beneficiary is Honor Code, who has shown the ability to win from a stalking trip and to come from off the pace. Honor Code’s two most recent races – including his G2 score at Gulfstream on March 7 – put him above everyone in this field except for Protonico. Bottom line is that no matter how we saw this race play out, we saw either Honor Code or Protonico returning to the Winner’s Circle.
But that didn’t mean that we did not see some horses worthy of inclusion on our “B” Team. First, Neck n’ Neck absolutely LOVES Churchill Downs, with 4 wins in 6 starts over the strip, including the Grade 3 Ack Ack. His Beyer pattern is nice, with improving figures in each of his past 4 races. Problem is that he was a full 5 lengths back of Protonico in the Ben Ali, and has had less than a month to figure out how to turn the tables. We also considered Ride On Curlin worthy of inclusion on the “B” Team. He did not have a good outing last, time, but perhaps it was because of the wet and sealed strip. His race two back at Oaklawn, at the same distance, would be competitive here, although still a cut below the top two. If, however, he is able to recapture the magic he tapped into at Pimlico last May, he would be right in the mix for the win. Finally, as noted above, Noble Bird is the one runner in this field with any sort of front running tendencies. If Protonico takes back – which was his style prior to the Ben Ali – Noble Bird could get away with it on the front end. At 15/1, that contingency is worth of “B” consideration.
A: 2, 7
B: 3,4, 9
Race 9—The Twin Spires Turf Sprint—Grade III—5f (T)
This is a spicy turf sprint, with twelve runners, 5 of which are between 3-1 and 5-1. It’s a wide open affair which forces us to go deeper on our Pick 4 tickets than in any other race in the sequence.
Our analysis begins with the Shakertown graduates—a race that has produced several recent winners of the Twin Spires. Given the amount of speed/pressers signed on for this race, we are looking for stalkers and closers to fill our “A” group. Power Alert was a beaten favorite in the Shakertown and very well could have bounced off the solid Gulfstream effort two back. He’s now third off the layoff for connections sporting a solid 33% win clip at CD. He could sit right behind the lead group and get first run. Undrafted is consistent and has a proven closing kick which should set up well in here. The concern is that this may be a little shorter distance than he prefers. Personally, we’ll be rooting for this horse because, if nothing else, we’re excited to see what Wes Welker has in store for an encore following last year’s Derby weekend performance. Our final top A selection is Heita. We realize he’s pure speed, but he’s likely the speed of the speed and is four for four at this distance. Also, a wise T-Bro once said the key to handicapping a turf sprint is identifying who has the lead heading for home. That could very well be Heitai.
To fill out our B team, we will use the remaining Shakertown entrants—Channel Marker, Zee Bros, and Something Extra along with the talented mare, Good Deed. As to the latter, if you can look past the last effort, where she missed the break (but still ran second), her numbers on the sheets are better than anyone else’s in the race. One note on Zee Bros, maybe a touch slow in here, but Lukas has a recent history of blowing up these Triple Crown Pick 4’s. So fool us twice…
A: 3, 10, 12
B: 2, 7, 8, 11
Race 10—The Eight Belles—Grade III—7 Furlongs
Single Alert!!!!! We went ahead and did it. We singled number 2 Promise Me Silver. What’s not to like? There is a ton of speed in this race, and Promise Me Silver is the one horse in here that has shown an ability to take back and win from off the pace. Her figures are generally improving, and she already has a win at 7 furlongs. Plus the Calhoun/Albarado jockey-trainer combo has been firing at 25% with a $3.09 ROI. All systems go.
For our “B” Team, we have three different types of horses. First we have Callback, who is coming into this race after a failed effort at two turns in the Sunland Park Oaks. She has had success, with competitive numbers, at 1 mile and 6.5 furlongs, and the turnback to 7 furlongs may very well suit her here. She adds blinkers and breaks from the rail, so expect some early lick. Second, we have Lavender Chrissie, who put up a career best in her last race, and in her first try at 7 furlongs. The horse adds JJ Castellano, and should move forward in her second start as a three year old. If she puts in one more forward move, and the others in the field stagnate a bit, she could be right in the mix at 12/1. Finally, we have Enchanting Lady, who turned back and absolutely freaked at Santa Anita in her last race, that one over 6.5 furlongs. If she runs that again, she’s the most likely winner, and at 4/1 still offers value.
A: 2
B: 1, 7, 8
Race 11—The Kentucky Oaks—Grade I—1 Mile 1/8th
Historically, the Oaks is one of our favorite races, and this year’s edition only solidifies our fondness. Twitter opinions on this race are varied. While we will spread deeply on our B Team, for coverage and value purposes, we do have a strong opinion here.
To us, the key to the race is Lovely Maria–a somewhat forgotten horse in the buzz leading up to the race, despite a respectable 5-1 morning line. She’s currently the 4th choice and we think she could creep up to 7 or 8-1. Larry Jones has a solid history in this race. The horse is getting better and better and has really flourished since stretching out. Her sheets pattern shows steady improvement and another move forward should land her in the winner’s circle. Showing no signs of regressing, on Monday, Maria turned in a dazzling work (I know that’s nothing knew for a Jones trainee) over the CD strip, out training her stablemate I’m a Chatterbox. Maria also possesses the right running style for this race, expected to sit just off the lead and get first run at what could be a relatively uncontested pace. In the spirit of full disclosure, however, I must admit that this Thorobro author’s daughter is named Maria. But I swear this isn’t a #homerpick.
We would single Maria but for the possible “freak” factor of Cali-shipper Stellar Wind. Since stretching out to routes, Stellar Wind has turned in three dominate performances. Her running style also fits the typical winning profile for the race. The biggest concern? Sadler’s dismal numbers outside of California and also on the major race days (TC and BC). Still, the horse’s numbers are too good to ignore.
Beyond these two, however, we see many logical options which we intend to use either as coverage or for value. As to the former category, we will be using Condo Commando (although concerned with pace setters’ subpar record in this race) and I’m a Chatterbox (although concerned she may not favor CD as much as she did FG). As to the latter category, we like value plays Forever Unbridled (Lemons Forever connections and potentially heading towards a new top number), Shook Up (improving horse, training well, and should be closing strong), and Include Betty (if she repeats her last performance from a speed figure stand point, she’s right there).
A’s: 7, 12
B’s: 1,2,3, 5, 8
A Quick Note on Ticket Building: As we all know too well, picking horses is only half the battle in betting, especially when it comes to pick 4’s. We could go on for pages about ticket building strategies. Sparing you that boredom, in sum, here is what we are thinking.
Employing the A and B multi-ticket method, as discussed above, we will look to play a series of tickets combining our A horses with some of the coverage and value offered by our B horses. Our “all A horse” ticket—using only our best bet A horses in the four races–is pretty light, so we will play that one for an extra unit. We will also play four additional tickets using our A’s in three legs and rotating through each race’s B team. The big question becomes how many combos we play with more than one B team across the four legs? We have the most confidence in the A’s selected in Races 8 and 11. Thus, we are most likely play a ticket using our A horses in the 8th and 11th with our B’s in the 9th and 10th. Under this scenario, if either of the chalk wins the Alysheba, we will be alive to seven horses in the turf sprint and then, regardless of whether an A or B wins, four horses in the Eight Belles.
Win or lose, we love this sequence and look forward to a Friday afternoon of race watching, julep drinking, and (fingers crossed) finally avenging the St. John’s River heartbreak. Good luck, everyone!
