![carve-684x547[1]](http://thorobros.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/carve-684x5471.jpg)
As we approach the 31st running of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, each of us will analyze one potential contender per week that we think, based on their campaign and resume, fit the profile of a Breeders’ Cup winner.
In anticipation of Saturday’s Homecoming Stakes at Churchill Downs, this first BC Profile examines the morning line favorite for that race, and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile hopeful, Carve.
Basics
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
Age: 4
Sire: First Samurai
Dam: Apt (A.P. Indy)
2014 Campaign
Carve has started seven times in 2014, at five different tracks, winning four with one place and one show. His only off the board finish was in his longest race of the year, the one mile and 3/16 Pimlico Special on May 16. He has one graded stakes win, the Grade 3 Cornhusker on June 28, 2014. However, his two best efforts this year, from a Beyer standpoint, were in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Park Handicap (3rd to Will Take Charge and Revolutionary, 101 Beyer) (replay below) and his last effort, the Grade 3 Ack Ack at Churchil (2nd 101 Beyer).
Dirt Mile Profile
This will be the 8th running of the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. Prior to the last two editions run at Santa Anita, every dirt mile winner had been turning back in distance from either 9 or 10 furlongs, and had been running in Graded Stakes races most of the year. The last two years, however, the winners have not been turning back but instead shared the common thread of having past success at Santa Anita. Further, all but one winner of the past Dirt Miles has posted a 100 plus Beyer in one of his last two races.
Carve will fit the turn back angle following Saturday’s 9 furlong Homecoming. He also fits from a class standpoint with a Grade 3 win and game efforts against tough competition all year. And with a 101 Beyer in the Ack Ack, he also has the speed figure which matches past champions. What Carve does not have, however, is any Santa Anita experience (prominent in the last two winners of this race). While he may not have a SoCal foundation, there’s no disputing that this horse knows how to ship. This year alone he’s run at Oaklawn, Pimlico, Churchill, Mountaineer, and Prairie Meadows. He has handled each track, with the exception of Pimlico. Thus, there’s reason to believe he will ship well to Santa Anita. That said, I would like to see Cox ship him early allowing Carve to get acquainted with his Arcadia surroundings and get a few trips around the local strip.
From a running stand point, the Dirt Mile has potential to have a hot pace depending on which sprinters try to stretch out and if the 2013 Champ Goldencents lands here. If that’s the case, depending on the draw, Carve figures to set a stalking trip, close to the pace (where he’ll likely need to be on a speed favoring track) and could get first run on the leaders if a speed duel ensues.
We will have to see how Carve fares tomorrow night at Churchill. However, assuming another game effort, he will likely be green lighted for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile where he will likely be a major player.
