12 Days of Derby — No. 10 Thunder Gulch 1995

In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbys and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbys of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 2, 2015.

Number 10:  1995 Thunder Gulch

The 1995 Derby was in the midst of D. Wayne Lukas’ domination of the Triple Crown Season. The year before he won both the Preakness and the Belmont with Tabasco Cat, and was ready to continue the streak with three entries in the 1995 Derby:  last years 2 year old Champ Timber Country,  the All-Star filly Serena’s Song and Thunder Gulch, who although was very successful that year was a bit of an afterthought.

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Twelve Days of Derby: No. 11–I’ll Have Another (2012)

In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbys and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 2, 2015.

Number 11:  2012 I’ll Have Another

The 2012 Kentucky Derby will always rank highly on Thorobros’ personal lists. It marked the first and only time that all three of us were together at Churchill Downs for the race.  It was an awesome weekend–although not entirely profitable.  Unfortunately, as described in more detail below, each of us was scared away from playing winner I’ll Have Another on top, but I’ll Have Another, as he did time and time again in 2012, proved his doubters wrong.

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Twelve Days of Derby: Charismatic (1999)

In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 2, 2015.

Number 12: Charismatic (1999)

Charismatic was a great, and ultimately heartbreaking, story. But he also was a story of redemption, overcoming adversity to win the Kentucky Derby in the first place, and then overcoming even greater adversity just to survive a fractured leg suffered in the Belmont Stakes to make it to the breeding shed. While Charismatic may not be the best horse to ever win the Kentucky Derby – in fact, he may not even be close – its hard to imagine a better story

Prelude

Charismatic was owned by Bob and Beverly Lewis – among the bluest of racing’s blue bloods. But anybody with a spare $62,500 could have owned him in February of ’99, just three months before he won the Kentucky Derby. Charismatic’s record coming into Churchill Downs was 14 starts, with just 3 wins, 2 seconds and 3 third place finishes. He had run for in two different claiming races – once to break his maiden, and a second time in the aforementioned February ’99 claiming contest at Santa Anita. That February claiming race kick-started something for Charismatic, though, as he followed that with three consecutive 90+ Beyer speed figures, including a second place finish in the El Camino Real Derby and a fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. Sensing that Charismatic was getting better as he continued to race, his legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas fired him right back in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. With Jerry Bailey aboard for the first time, Charismatic exploded, running a 108 Beyer speed figure and taking down his first graded stakes victory at 12-1. Lukas may not have known it at the time, but he had found his next Derby winner.

Unfortunately, he would have to find a new Derby rider, as Bailey was already committed to riding Worldly Manner, the winner of the Del Mar Futurity and Best Pal stakes as a two-year old. This is where we welcome Chris Antley to the story – and the Ant-man came through big time.

The Race

Charismatic was 31-1 when the gates opened in the ’99 Derby. While that year’s race did not have any clear cut favorite (the post time chalk was the entry of Excellent Meeting and General Challenge), there were some real big time horses in the race: Menifee, Cat Thief, Lemon Drop Kid and Stephen Got Even, to name a few. In fact, Charismatic was the third longest shot on the board, with only Answer Lively and First American at longer odds. Charismatic and Chris Antley, however, ran a magnificent race – even overcoming getting shuffled back around the first turn to get first run down the lane and then hold off the hard charging Menifee at the wire.

When you watch this race a few times, perhaps the most notable thing about the stretch drive is Menifee. Menifee is absolutely FLYING down the lane, and ends up losing to Charismatic by a rapidly diminishing neck. D. Wayne Lukas is known for telling his Derby jockeys to make their move when they see the “track kitchen,” which is off the far turn. Lukas believes that this will allow his horses the best chance at getting first run and then squirting clear for the stretch drive. This race is a good example of that philosophy coming to fruition. Charismatic got first run, got clear, and there simply was not enough time for Menifee and Pat Day (perhaps living up to his reputation as sometimes patient to a fault) to get up. While he may have been saved by the wire, Charismatic’s performance in the Kentucky Derby was sublime – he was not going to be denied down the lane, passing horses down the middle of the track the others – except for the hard charging Menifee – were no match. Charismatic matched his 108 Beyer speed figure from the Lexington Stakes, which was 13 points higher than his previous top. Charismatic had pulled off the upset and run the race of his life – but could he do it again?

1999 Kentucky Derby

Aftermath

As the Triple Crown trail moved to Baltimore, the public decided that Charismatic’s victory was a nice story, but a fluke. He was sent post-ward in the Preakness at 8-1, with Menifee as the 2-1 chalk. Charismatic, the Derby winner, was the fifth choice in the wagering, also behind Cat Thief, Worldly Manner and Excellent Meeting. Worldly Manner and Excellent Meeting would finish second to last and last, respectively. Charismatic, of course, would win – once again besting Menifee and moving to New York City with a chance to capture the Triple Crown. And that is where Charismatic’s journey took a tragic turn. He led the Belmont Stakes as the horses reached the final furlong – one eighth of a mile to immortality. But Charismatic took a bad step and, though he still finished third behind Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse, he had broken his leg in two places. Chris Antley pulled him up just past the wire, cradling his broken leg. Antley’s actions are widely credited with saving Charismatic’s life and allowing him to pursue a career in the breeding shed. But that was the last we would see of Charismatic on the track.

1999 Preakness Stakes

1999 Belmont Stakes

 

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A Look Back at the 2004 Arkansas Derby: The $5 Million Smarty Party

In honor of this weekend’s Arkansas Derby, we take a look back at the 2004 running, which occurred 11 years ago today, where Smarty Jones stamped himself as Derby favorite and took another step towards a $5 million bonus.

Everyone remembers Smarty’s Kentucky Derby win, Preakness romp, and valiant Belmont effort.  But what is not written about nearly as much, were his two wins at Oaklawn in early 2004 which put him in line to win a $5 million bonus by capturing the Kentucky Derby.   2004 marked Oaklawn’s 100 years anniversary, and to do something big to honor the centennial, Charles Cella, the owner of Oaklawn, offered a $5 million bonus to any horse who would win the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, and the Kentucky Derby.  It seemed like a nice promotion but also a safe bet as only one horse had ever completed that trifecta–Sunny’s Halo in 1983.

But as Smarty drew clear at Churchill on a rainy first Saturday in May, Oaklawn’s little promotion, turned into a big pay day for Smarty and his connections, while keeping Oaklawn in the spot light over a month after its meet ended.  And no one (other than Smarty’s owners, presumably) seemed happier about it than Cella.

“I have been around horse racing for more than 50 years and have seen a lot of the sport’s greatest races, but watching Smarty Jones pull away for the win in Kentucky was the greatest sports moment I have ever witnessed,” Cella said. “I wanted that horse to win as much as anybody. We feel as though he has become part of our family and I think I can speak for all Arkansas horse racing fans in echoing the same sentiments. He has become a true Arkansas sports hero and no state appreciates its sports heroes with greater affection than Arkansas.”

Incentives have always been a popular tool used by race tracks to attract top talent and generate a buzz. Some might question whether the value of these incentives is worth the cost of the policy,  and a true assessment of their success may be difficult to ascertain.  On the one hand, today, when people remember Smarty, his Arkansas Derby win, or even the big bonus, do not immediately come to mind.   On the other hand, the promotion delivered Oaklawn a star colt, increased the profile of the race, provided a great story to tell on the 100 year anniversary,  and generated marketing material to last for the track’s lifetime.  I’d be interested to hear whether Oaklawn officials believe they received sufficient bang for their buck.

As for a recount of the 2004 Arkansas Derby, we’ll leave that to the replay where you can watch Smarty hold on for a two length win.

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And to get a sense of the buzz surrounding Smarty following his win at Oaklawn,  here is a day after the race article from the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette in Little Rock.

Enjoy the 2015 Arkansas Derby and an otherwise star studded weekend of racing from Oaklawn.

 

 

 

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Horse Madness: CHAMPIONSHIP- (1) Zenyatta v. (1) Wise Dan

WiseDanShadwellMile2012AE298 ZenyattaBCClassic09_3AE298

In the spirit of March Madness, we are conducting a little experiment to determine how racing fans would evaluate the “best”, “greatest” or “most popular” (or any other criteria you think is applicable) horse of the last 5 or so years. Think of this as the “People’s Choice Awards” for racing. Use whatever criteria you think best determines which horses advance from round to round.  Let us know how you arrived at your conclusions. How it works:  Each day from March 16 through the end of the month, we will feature one matchup. We will post career specifics and some highlight races on our site to help you in your handicapping. Then you the fans will vote– favorite the tweet if choosing horse A, retweet if selecting horse B. Voting windows will close by 10:00 p.m. each night. The horse with the most votes will advance to the next round. 

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March Madness Handicap Update–Finals Set

3Wise Dan

 

After 18 candidates and 16 matchups, only two horses remain to claim the crown as the inaugural Horse Madness champion.  No surprises, the top two seeds, Zenyatta and Wise Dan will meet for the championship.  We will post our pre-game summary tomorrow morning when voting for the championship will open.

Here is the updated Finals Bracket

In sum, the tournament has largely followed script with only a few mild upsets.  While early on, it appeared that voters favored the “now” horse (Main Sequence over Blind Luck) or horses with more of a wow factor than a grind it out style (Uncle Mo over Shackelford), later rounds revealed that voters still valued overall career achievements more than potential (Game on Dude over I’ll Have Another and Animal Kingdom over Shared Belief).  It will be interesting to see what sways voters in tomorrow’s championship.

For your reference, below are the tournament rules and overview as originally posted.  Thanks for following along and see you back tomorrow for the Queen Z v. Wise Dan finale.

 

 

The Problem: The sport of racing has enjoyed great champions over the past five years.  From the late race heroics of Zenyatta to the determination and resolve of Wise Dan. However, one of the most frustrating aspects of racing is the inability to settle debates as to the “greatest” on the track. Divisions created by gender, surface, distance, and geography make it nearly impossible and impractical for the best of the best to meet or for debates to be resolved.

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Horse Madness: Final Four – (1) Wise Dan v. (3) Animal Kingdom

 

In the spirit of March Madness, we are conducting a little experiment to determine how racing fans would evaluate the “best”, “greatest” or “most popular” (or any other criteria you think is applicable) horse of the last 5 or so years. Think of this as the “People’s Choice Awards” for racing. Use whatever criteria you think best determines which horses advance from round to round.  Let us know how you arrived at your conclusions. How it works:  Each day from March 16 through the end of the month, we will feature one matchup. We will post career specifics and some highlight races on our site to help you in your handicapping. Then you the fans will vote– favorite the tweet if choosing horse A, retweet if selecting horse B. Voting windows will close by 10:00 p.m. each night. The horse with the most votes will advance to the next round. 

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Horse Madness: Final Four Zenyatta (1) v. Rachel Alexandra (2)

Us and Queen Z Friday morning

RachelAlexandraWoodward09_2AC298

In the spirit of March Madness, we are conducting a little experiment to determine how racing fans would evaluate the “best”, “greatest” or “most popular” (or any other criteria you think is applicable) horse of the last 5 or so years. Think of this as the “People’s Choice Awards” for racing. Use whatever criteria you think best determines which horses advance from round to round.  Let us know how you arrived at your conclusions. How it works:  Each day from March 16 through the end of the month, we will feature one matchup. We will post career specifics and some highlight races on our site to help you in your handicapping. Then you the fans will vote– favorite the tweet if choosing horse A, retweet if selecting horse B. Voting windows will close by 10:00 p.m. each night. The horse with the most votes will advance to the next round. 

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Horse Madness–Elite 8 (2) Shared Belief v. (3) Animal Kingdom

SharedBelief_500x333I

animal-kingdom

In the spirit of March Madness, we are conducting a little experiment to determine how racing fans would evaluate the “best”, “greatest” or “most popular” (or any other criteria you think is applicable) horse of the last 5 or so years. Think of this as the “People’s Choice Awards” for racing. Use whatever criteria you think best determines which horses advance from round to round.  Let us know how you arrived at your conclusions. How it works:  Each day from March 16 through the end of the month, we will feature one matchup. We will post career specifics and some highlight races on our site to help you in your handicapping. Then you the fans will vote– favorite the tweet if choosing horse A, retweet if selecting horse B. Voting windows will close by 10:00 p.m. each night. The horse with the most votes will advance to the next round. 

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Horse Madness: Elite Eight – Wise Dan v. Game On Dude

Wise Dan GameOnDude_2013CharlesTownClassic-650x433

In the spirit of March Madness, we are conducting a little experiment to determine how racing fans would evaluate the “best”, “greatest” or “most popular” (or any other criteria you think is applicable) horse of the last 5 or so years. Think of this as the “People’s Choice Awards” for racing. Use whatever criteria you think best determines which horses advance from round to round.  Let us know how you arrived at your conclusions. How it works:  Each day from March 16 through the end of the month, we will feature one matchup. We will post career specifics and some highlight races on our site to help you in your handicapping. Then you the fans will vote– favorite the tweet if choosing horse A, retweet if selecting horse B. Voting windows will close by 10:00 p.m. each night. The horse with the most votes will advance to the next round. 

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Critical analysis of the business, marketing, legal, and leadership aspects of the Sport of Kings