Handcapping The White Whale: Kentucky Oaks Day Stakes Pick 4

Welcome to the Thorobros Pick 4 analysis for May 1, 2015, Kentucky Oaks Day. The Thorobros love the Kentucky Oaks. It is a fantastic day to go to the track, and even though there are more than 100,000 people at Churchill Downs, it still seems relatively quiet compared to the insanity of Derby Day. The Oaks Day All-Stakes Pick 4 also holds a special place in our hearts. In 2011, we had a live Pick 4 into St. Johns River, which was going to pay very nicely. Of course, we did not have Plum Pretty on our tickets. Needless to say, Plum Pretty held off a hard charging St. Johns River by a rapidly diminishing head, and the Thorobros were left prone on the floor of Philadelphia’s Center City Turf Club, which is never a place you want to be.

TC

We promise, the Turf Club looks nothing like this in real life.

But with each spring comes renewal and rebirth, and the Thorobros are back again to chase the Kentucky Oaks Pick 4. It is our great white whale. Perhaps this is the year, or perhaps we will once again be gasping for air on the well-worn carpet of our local off track betting establishment. We consider it a win either way.

Continue reading Handcapping The White Whale: Kentucky Oaks Day Stakes Pick 4

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12 Days of Derby: No. 2 — Monarchos

In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 3, 2015. Continue reading 12 Days of Derby: No. 2 — Monarchos

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The Thorobros Guide to Mint Juleps

So you have your seersucker suit, your Derby hat, your bowtie, your saddle shoes and a sweet belt with sailboats or some shit like that on it. You just got finished with a bunch of Natural Lights and you are wondering how you are going to blow your Pick 4 winnings in the time between the Derby and the Fight (Go PacMan). You are in the middle  of the best sports day of the year.  In short, you are having an awesome Derby Day. But what’s missing from this picture? That’s right, the official drink of the Kentucky Derby, the mint julep. But you can’t just have any normal mint julep – you have a seersucker suit on for God’s sakes. You need to have a Thorobros mint julep. And boy do we have some juleps for you. Derby Party Continue reading The Thorobros Guide to Mint Juleps

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12 Days of Derby: Number 3 – Smarty Jones

In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 3, 2015.

Number 3: Smarty Jones (2004)

Smarty Jones is Philadelphia’s horse. He was not regally bred, he debuted at Philadelphia Park, a decidedly second-tier track, his trainer was John Servis, and his jockey was Stewart Elliott, who had toiled in relative obscurity for his entire riding career. Philadelphia is a blue collar town that cares passionately about its sports teams, and appreciates more than anything an athlete that shows up to work every day and always gets the job done. Smarty Jones certainly came to race every time he went into the starting gate and save for the final race of his career, he never had a horse hit the wire in front of him.

Continue reading 12 Days of Derby: Number 3 – Smarty Jones

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12 Days of Derby — Number 4 – Funny Cide

In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 3, 2015.

Number 4: Funny Cide

When we conjured up this idea, we thought about all the elements that make a Derby great. Not just the running of the race itself, but the story lines and the history they create. We have come to realize that there is no such thing as a “typical” Derby winner. Although many of them share characteristics, there is not one thing that seems to always occur. However, there are some trends that seem to appear almost every year. (see Mazur’s Crushing the Derby).

However, some years those trends are bucked and a horse and the people that are associated with him break all the rules. That is what happened in 2003 with Funny Cide.

Continue reading 12 Days of Derby — Number 4 – Funny Cide

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12 Days of Derby–Number 5: Street Sense (2007)

In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 3, 2015.

Number 5:  2007 Street Sense

On November 4, 2006, Street Sense, trained by Carl Nafzger and ridden by Calvin Borel, dominated the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile held at Churchill Downs. The son of Street Cry’s ten length, rail skimming romp marked the largest margin of victory in the race’s 23 year history—a history that includes the “Here…indeed… is…a…superstar!” coronation of Arazi in 1991.  As a result of his performance, Street Sense earned two year old champion honors and was immediately stamped the early favorite for the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

This side of the Curse of Apollo, however, in 2007, no Derby jinx was more publicized than the failure of the previous 22 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners to win the Run For the Roses.  Further, no two year old champion had won the event since Spectacular Bid in 1979.

So that was the challenge facing Street Sense entering the 2007 Kentucky Derby– avoiding the misfortunes bestowed upon previous two year old champions and breaking the Breeders’ Cup Derby drought.

Continue reading 12 Days of Derby–Number 5: Street Sense (2007)

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12 Days of Derby: Number 6 — 1997 Silver Charm

In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 3, 2015.

Number 6: Silver Charm (1997)

Bob Baffert and Bob and Beverley Lewis – the Killer B’s – took Silver Charm from a $16,500 yearling, whom they purchased privately for $85,000, to being one of the best horses ever, and a near Triple Crown winner. Charm was Baffert’s first Derby winner, ushering in an era where the biggest name at Triple Crown season was generally “Baffert.” Indeed, that is the case this year. Silver Charm also prevailed in a year that featured a true Triple Crown rivalry involving truly excellent horses, besting Free House and Captain Bodgit in the Derby and the Preakness, and then beating Free House again in the Belmont, while losing narrowly to Touch Gold, tantalizingly close to a Triple Crown

Prelude

Silver Charm had six starts before the Kentucky Derby, and showed his class in all of them, with three firsts and three seconds. He broke his maiden in his second start at Del Mar, and then would go on to capture the Del Mar Futurity (G2) to conclude his brief two year old season. ‘Charm next surfaced as a three year old, opening his season in the San Vicente at Santa Anita, prevailing over Free House and putting up a 110 Beyer speed figure, then a 13 point career top. It was the beginning of an epic back and forth rivalry with Free House that would stretch through the 1997 Triple Crown season.

Silver Charm then came back in the San Felipe, but this time Free House turned the tables on him, winning by three quarters of a length. The two rivals would square off again in the Santa Anita Derby, and this time Silver Charm had a new jockey. Gary Stevens took over for Chris McCarron for the SA Derby, but on that Saturday it made no difference as Free House once again prevailed, this time by a mere head. So the stage was set for Louisville, as the West Coast’s best were set to once again go head to head, but this time, they would be joined by the Wood Memorial winner, the best of the east, Team Valor’s Captain Bodgit.

The Race

What a fantastic Kentucky Derby. Silver Charm gets a world class ride from Gary Stevens, rating off the lead for the first three quarters of a mile. The early part of the race is a fairly controlled duel between Pulpit and Free House, with a first half mile in 47 seconds and change. The early pace scenario also featured Shammy Davis, which I mention only because it is a funny name. Silver Charm sat just behind those leaders, ready to pounce. As the field moved around the far turn, Silver Charm was ready to pounce.

Stevens and ‘Charm make a perfect move off the turn, just as Free House takes over the lead. Phantom on Tour was in behind those horses, with Jerry Bailey looking around for running room. As the horses hit the top of the stretch, Silver Charm wears down Free House and Pulpit, although both horses fought gamely down the lane, with Free House eventually finishing third and Pulpit hanging on desperately for fourth. But Silver Charm was far from home free – Captain Bodgit, the favorite, was looming. Streaking down the middle of the track as Dave Johnson gives his signature “and down the stretch they come” call, Captain Bodgit closes on Silver Charm, and Silver Charm comes out ever so slightly, bothering Captain Bodgit just a bit. Was that the difference in a race decided by a half-length? Personally, I don’t think so. Once Captain Bodgit pulled next to Silver Charm, ‘Charm showed just how tough a horse he was, finding another gear and stopping Bodgit’s rally long enough to hit the wire. The celebration that followed showed just how great a race it was and how important the win was to ‘Charm’s connections. Stevens, Baffert and the Lewises all go crazy as Dave Johnson gushes about how good a Derby it was.

1997 Kentucky Derby

Silver Charm would once again tangle with Captain Bodgit and Free House in Baltimore, prevailing once again to set up a chance for history in New York. Neither Free House nor the Captain were deterred, however, as the connections for both horses announced their intentions to move ahead to the Belmont, seeking to deny Silver Charm the ultimate prize. Later in the week after the Preakness, ‘Charm’s chances got just a bit easier, as Captain Bodgit’s connections announced that the horse had sustained an injury at Pimlico and would be retired. The announcement derailed the third act of what was shaping up to be one of the great three horse rivalries in racing history.

It was not to be at Belmont for Silver Charm, with Touch Gold running on to deny Silver Charm the Crown. Silver Charm finished a respectable second, and was turned out for some well-deserved time off.

1997 Preakness Stakes

1997 Belmont Stakes

Aftermath

The aftermath of Silver Charm’s Triple Crown run was fantastic. He took basically the rest of his three year old season off, coming back in the G1 Malibu in December, finishing second over 7 furlongs. He came back with a vengeance during his four year old year, however, winning the San Fernando and the Strub at Santa Anita, before making the journey to Dubai to take the 1998 Dubai World Cup by a nose. He hit a bit of a rut upon his return stateside, finishing second in the Stephen Foster and an unsightly fifth – by 27 lengths – in the San Diego. He busted out of his slump big time in the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway, however, winning by 17 lengths and posting a ridiculous 123 Beyer speed figure. He followed that up with a win in the Goodwood and a second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, losing to Awesome Again (the same horse that had beaten him earlier in the year in the Foster). For good measure, Silver Charm came back and won the Clark to close out his year. Despite his stellar four year old season, Silver Charm lost horse of the year to Skip Away, who had reeled off 9 straight graded stakes victories before going down in defeat in the ’98 Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

1998 Dubai World Cup

Silver Charm came back for more in ’99, the San Pasquale and then putting up show performances in the Donn and the Big Cap. The ’99 Big Cap, won by Free House, was a great race, and Silver Charm’s 118 Beyer was only good enough for show honors. Silver Charm again made the journey to the Middle East, but could do no better than sixth in the ’99 Dubai World Cup. He followed that up with a 4th in the Stephen Foster before calling it a career.

Silver Charm retired to Three Chimneys Farm in 2000. He spent the next four breeding seasons in the U.S. before going to Japan. His foals include multiple graded stakes winners Preachinatthebar, Miss Isella, and Spring Waltz. In 2007, Silver Charm was elected to the Racing Hall of Fame.

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12 Days of Derby – Number 7 Fusaichi Pegasus

In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 3, 2015.

Number 7: Fusaichi Pegasus

The Build Up

The only ‘international’ star to win the Derby in recent years. FuPeg as his fans know him, was a highly regarded racing prospect who raced for Japanese owners Fusao Sekiguchi. Although he never raced in Japan, he was a star there before he even touched the track by the nature of his owner’s huge receipt for the horse: $4 million as a yearling.

Once he made it to the track, FuPeg lived up to the hype by finishing second first out, then running a streak of 4 wins in a row, capped off by the Wood Memorial, before entering the gate in the Kentucky Derby. FuPeg began his career in California and raced his first four starts there, but proved to be a road warrior by going to New York to take his final Derby prep.

The Neil Drysdale trainee proved to be a deserving Derby favorite. However he would have to break the streak of defeated Derby favorites that was last broken back in 1979 by Spectacular Bid.

The Race 

Although FuPeg was all the talk derby week, he was not the only horse with a chance in the race. The 1999 BC Juvenile winner Anees was in the line up as well, along with other horses destined for greatness in future Grade One Winners Captain Steve, War Chant, and Commendable. However, interestingly missing was the horse who recently finished second to him in the Wood, Red Bullet.

As the gates opened, FuPeg got off to a great start. The 19 horse field took to usually speedy fractions. Kent Desormeaux guided FuPeg to the rail to save ground, and start to make a slow inside move up the backside. As the field made it’s way into the turn FuPeg was passing horses but still had plenty to do. Sitting in the  second flight, Kent D angled FuPeg out and gave a clear run down the stretch. At the eighth pole, FuPeg had taken the lead and took off to open up by 2-3 lengths and continued his win streak in the Derby and totally vindicated his $4 million purchase price.

 The 2000 Derby

The Aftermath

After FuPeg’s win, he did what every other Derby winner does: try to win the Triple Crown. After close calls in the last three years, it was all but assumed by the public, including my own 11 year old self who was to attend my first Belmont, that FuPeg would win the Preakness.

However, FuPeg’s run ended at the hands of his Wood Memorial foe Red Bullet in Baltimore. FuPeg did not race in the Belmont, although he did win the Jerome later that year as a prep for the Breeders Cup Classic where he finished a disappointing 6th behind late-blooming 3 year old Tiznow.

However,  Fusao Sekiguchi made out like a bandit when he sold FuPeg to Coolmore for a reported  cool $60-70 million. However, FuPeg has not lived up to that price in breeding shed, having failed to produce a high number of grade 1 runners. But his Derby performance totally vindicated all of his praise and promise as a yearling and is deserving of a spot on our list.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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12 Days of Derby: Number 8 — 1998 Real Quiet

In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 3, 2015.

 Number 8: Real Quiet (1998)

When I think about Real Quiet, I can’t help but think about the ’98 Belmont – not the Kentucky Derby. So, so close. I really can’t imagine what Bob Baffert, Mike Pegram and Kent Desormeaux must have been thinking in the moments after they finished four inches short of a Triple Crown. Fourteen year old me, of course, was jumping up and down – I loved Victory Gallop, and as a native Saratogian, took a dim view of Mr. Baffert and west coast racing in general. The east coast bias changed (a little) as I got older – one trip to Del Mar will tend to have that effect – and nobody can deny the success of Baffert, Pegram and Desormeaux over the years. But I digress – this series is about the Kentucky Derby, and the 1998 renewal was a classic.

Continue reading 12 Days of Derby: Number 8 — 1998 Real Quiet

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12 Days of Derby: Number 9–1996 Grindstone

In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbys and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbys of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 2, 2015.

Six minutes.

Over 360 seconds.

That’s how long the viewing public waited after the conclusion of the race until they finally learned who won the 1996 Kentucky Derby.  Was it Cavonnier clinging to the lead on the inside, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Chris McCarron?  Or was the winner Grindstone, flying on the outside, trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Jerry Bailey.  The two had crossed the wire in seeming harmony.  And for six minutes, no one knew who won.

Continue reading 12 Days of Derby: Number 9–1996 Grindstone

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