Happy Travers Day, everyone! For us, having grown up spending our summers in Saratoga, this is our Super Bowl.   20 years ago, this Thorobro finally convinced my parents to let me brave the crowds and commotion of Travers Day to witness Deputy Commander and Chris McCarron storm home. I still have a pair of McCarron’s goggles from that race on display in my basement.

Fast forward to the present and the 2017 Travers is a spectacular betting race.  We could make an argument for all twelve starters and would not be shocked if any of the entrants win.  But the Travers does not stand alone. It anchors a fantastic Pick 4 sequence with a guaranteed pool (that we are certain will be far exceeded).   Our thoughts on races 8 through 11are below along with a few other key plays throughout the day.  Good luck!

Continue reading Travers Day Pick 4 and Top Plays →

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We are excited to have the opportunity to moderate the panel on Race Track Marketing at Equestricon. The panel http://equestricon.com/schedule/racing-marketing , scheduled for 2:00 p.m. on Monday, August 14, 2017, will feature marketing executives from top race tracks across the country– Christa Marilla (Keeneland), Alyssa Ali (Arlington), C.J. Johnsen (Kentucky Downs), Kelly O’Hara (Remington) and Darran Miner (NYRA). Everyone agrees there is a need to grow our sport, but the “how” is subject to much debate.  In advance of Equestricon, we will discuss a few of the ideas and concepts that will be raised during our panel discussion.  Following the Panel, we hope to analyze some of the key concepts and takeaways discussed.

All horseplayers have that story. It is the story of their first near miss on a big hit during his or her early days of navigating pari-mutuel options.  It is the wager that converted them from a causal fan to a true handicapper.  It’s that taste of dreaming big, the belief that a huge score is possible, which keeps many coming back.

Continue reading How to Grow Our Sport–Multi Track Wager →

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Happy Belmont Day. There’s nothing quite like Belmont on a year with a Triple Crown possibility.  Unfortunately, that is not the case in 2017.  But putting aside that disappointment, aside from the Breeders Cup, this is the best card of the year.   10 stakes races, 9 graded, 6 Grade 1’s.  Plus, the return of Champion Songbird.  And maybe most exciting—tons of wide open races offering value plays all day, including the Belmont itself, which could yield a big payout.

Here are our thoughts. Sorry they are brief but with Friday action and ten stakes, we ran short on time.  Good luck and follow us on Twitter @thorobros for updates live from Elmont.

Continue reading Happy Belmont Day! →

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Not to sound like a broken record, but we love the “day before the big day” Friday cards. Breeders’ Cup Friday, Oaks, and Black Eyed Susan Day are long time Thorobros favorites.  So we could not be more excited by NYRA’s continued development of the Belmont Racing Festival and in particular, the Friday card.  And this year’s is their best effort to date.  Full fields all day, highlighted by a late Friday afternoon Happy Hour all stakes Pick 4.  It offers the perfect appetizer to a huge Saturday of racing at Belmont.   In our typical fashion for these Friday cards, we offer our thoughts below on the late Pick 4 all stakes sequence.  With first post of this sequence at 4:42, it’s the perfect opportunity to grab some friends, grab some beers, and fire some Pick 4 wagers.

Bonus: If you get to the track or in front of a TV early, take a shot with the 7 in the 7th—Bird’s Eye View.  30-1.

Continue reading Belmont Friday →

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I’ve said it many times, and I’ll repeat it again—Black Eyed Susan Day is one of racing’s best kept secrets. Great racing, lighter crowds, a hospitable race track, the anticipation of Prekaness, and Natty Bohs, make this day one of a Thorobros favorite.  Shhh!

We have another stellar BES card for 2017 with opportunities abound.  In fact, while we normally like playing the stakes races more than the allowances and claiming races on these big days, you will see some of our best bets are in non stakes races (Races 1, 4, and 14).

Continue reading Happy Black Eyed Susan Day →

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Horse Racing’s Super Bowl is upon us. Happy Kentucky Derby Day everyone!  From serious handicappers to the casual party goer, everybody loves the Kentucky Derby.  And Number 143 promises to be an exciting edition with no clear cut superstar and each favorite having a serious knock or question mark.  We will take some big swings in hopes of a tote board explosion.  But the Derby is just one opportunity on a great card.  Below are some thoughts and selections (some more detailed than others) for the Derby Day Stakes.

Continue reading Free Derby Day Picks and Analysis →

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Happy Oaks Day! A Thorobros favorite. We love the anticipation and traditions that accompany this excellent day of Friday racing. A fruity and refreshing signature drink served in a stemless wine glass; an afternoon packed full of quality stakes races; and of course, the ultimate pink shirt Friday! We at Thorobros have also instilled our own Oaks Day traditions—unveiling our annual mint julep column (featuring questionable cocktails inspired by this year’s Derby participants)  http://thorobros.com/2017/05/2017-thorobros-mint-julep-guide/ and our Oaks Day Pick 4 post.

The Oaks “All Stakes” Pick 4 is our holy grail and Super Bowl. It was also our White Whale—having suffered multiple bad beats on this wager (e.g., St John’s River). But that changed in 2015 when our $1 all singles ticket hit the Pick 4.

It’s with this history in mind, that we proudly call the Oaks All Stakes Pick 4 our favorite bet of the year.   So it was with great anticipation that we reviewed the entries and race sequence on Tuesday for the 2017 All Stakes Pick 4.   But to our amazement, we saw that the sanctity of this wager had been disrupted by race officials inexplicably sticking an optional claimer in the middle of this sequence. It is the equivalent of CBS airing a three on three matchup from the Albuquerque Recreation League in between Final Four Games on the first Saturday night in April. Unforgiveable!

But we digress. It is still a great sequence, and a fun bet, even if some of the shine has been removed by the 9^th race. So below is our analysis of the Oaks All Stakes Pick 4!

Continue reading Oaks Day Pick Four Analysis and Stakes Selections →

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Derby regrets?  I’ve had a few.  While some of my biggest vertical race scores have occurred in the Derby (2001 and 2013 exactas and 2008 triple come to mind), I’ve had plenty of suspect selections.   Dreams of questionable speed horses getting lose on the lead.  Hopes that the hard knocking, hard luck horse would get a clean trip and finally break through on the biggest stage.  Chasing unproven horses from lesser circuits.  All seemed like good ideas at the time.  All seem completely irrational as I look back.  With a 20 horse field, you are bound to swing and miss more often than not.  But that doesn’t mean I still do not look back of Derbys of years’ past with 20/20 hindsight and ask: “What the hell was I thinking?”  I’ve tried to learn from my mistakes.  As  they say, those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

Let us know some of your biggest Derby regrets and lessons learned.  Below are just some of my biggest Derby flops and the lesson I’ve taken from these misses.

Continue reading Derby Regrets: Learning From Past Handicapping and Wagering Lapses →

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Fair or unfair, the relevancy of racing is often measured by the television ratings generated by the Triple Crown series. And although the rise in popularity of the series over the past 15 years is evident from a look at the statistics, last year’s series–especially the Kentucky Derby–was viewed a disappointment. Maybe not disappointing when just simply looking at the numbers, but certainly a gut punch to those expecting  the “Pharoah Effect” boost to ratings. Similar to the Tiger Woods Effect, when golf ratings soared in 1998, following Woods first year on the tour, racing fans hoped for a bump in ratings attributed to the sport’s first triple crown winner in 37 years.

Instead of a boost, the Derby took a 14% hit, dropping from 16 million viewers in 2015 to 15.5 million in 2016. However, a look at the historical ratings for the Run for the Roses, suggests that the disappointment of a slight regression in the 2016 ratings is not a doomsday indicator.

Continue reading Handicapping the Kentucky Derby TV Ratings →

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