Throughout the Saratoga meet, we will be posting our handicapping and analysis for the major stake races on the big days. What better place to start than the two stake races on Opening Day? Here are our thoughts on The Schuylerville and The Lake George:
Race 4 – The Schuylerville, 6f on the Main Track, 2YO Fillies
This stake for 2 year old fillies has been run since 1918. In that time, it has seen winners who have gone on to great careers. To name a few: Cicada, La Prevoyante, Turnback the Alarm, Ashado, and Mine That Bird. Fine, I made one of those up. But this race, for many of these horses, will be a make or break moment – can they hang with stakes company? Will they start down the road to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies? Or will they return to allowance company and try to move through their conditions before jumping back into stakes races? This year’s renewal, which kicks off the 2015 stakes schedule at the Spa, is a solid bunch of two year old fillies.
In the top spot, I am going with Decked Out. This one has to tangle with Moment is Right again, but should benefit from the added 1/16th of a mile in this race, and should also save ground starting from the rail, as opposed to the 3 wide trip she endured last time. The Desormeaux brothers hook up as the jockey-trainer combo, and offer nice ROI numbers in both stake races and off layoffs between 31 and 60 days. At 4/1, the price offers some value – and she may drift up, as the betting public hammers the Pletcher 2 year old Positively Royal.
In second, I have to go with Positively Royal. Todd Pletcher’s numbers at Saratoga with 2 year olds in stake races is absurd. He teams up with Castellano on this one, and Pletcher and Castellano have an unbelievable $2.09 ROI over 361 starts as a jockey-trainer combo. While this one offers little value on the tote board, there is no doubt that Pletcher will have her primed to run her best race on opening day. Leave her off your tickets at your own risk.
Finally, to round out the trifecta, I am going with Banree, the “other” Wesley Ward horse in here. She looked like a star in winning her maiden at Keeneland, drawing away to win by four lengths in a 4.5 furlong dash (classic Wes Ward). She came back against the boys in the Tremont on June 5th, and lost all chance at the start, tossing her head and then racing 5 wide throughout the race. She has trained very nicely for this race, firing two bullets in her last three works, including a first of 13 at the distance at Keeneland on July 17. Wes Ward runners have not run up to their prior numbers in recent Saratoga meetings, and that’s why I moved this one down a notch or two. But she offers more value than Moment is Right.
One note on Moment is Right – she is obviously a nice filly, but she has had it her way on the front end in both starts, getting clear by four lengths early in both her career efforts. I think there is little chance that she clears this field by that margin, and as a result, she will be forced to do something she has never done before. At 5/2, if she wins, it will be at my expense.
Race 9—The Lake George, 1 and 1/16th Miles on the Turf, 3YO Fillies
There is no shortage of speed in the 20th edition of the Lake George. I count as many as eight horses who have a propensity to be at or on the lead. Thus, I think the race sets up for a stalking or closing type. Unfortunately, most of those candidates appeared slow to me, so I instead focused on trying to find a pressing type who has shown the ability to rate.
Using that approach, I like Mrs. McDougal in the top spot. There is no disputing Chad Brown’s turf route record at Saratoga—32% over the last three meets and 64% in the money. Mrs. McD. gets a strong jockey/trainer connection adding Ortiz—who won on her two back. I also love the turn back angle here. Combine that with the stalking effort she showed in her debut and I like her chances to get first run on the leaders, yet have the stamina to hold on. My biggest concern is the post. With speed inside her there is potential she goes very wide around the first turn. Posts 9-12 were just 1 for 35 going 1 and 1/16th last year on the main turf course.
McGaughey’s All In Fun is coming off of her best effort—a strong second to Miss Temple City at Pimlico over two months back. We liked her that day and see no reason to be scared off here. She’s lightly raced, has been improving, and with the time off (Shug is 31% and an insane 85% in the money with thirteen starters coming off 60-90 day layoffs at Saratoga the last three years), could be ready for her career best—which should be good enough here.
After those two, the race is really wide open, with arguments for several horses, namely the 1, 3, 8, 10 11, and 12. I probably like the 11 and 12 best, but the outside posts scare me. That said, I’ll go with Robillard third despite the post concerns. McLaughlin has strong in the money percentages both in stakes andwith horses coming off two month layoffs at Saratoga. She’s very lightly raced but has improved each time and showed a nice stalking style two back.
Finally, given the odds, I will use Lady Zuzu, despite Lukas’ rough Saratoga record over the last few years. If you can overlook her last effort—where she went 47 and change on the lead going 1 and ¼ miles against superstar Lady Eli—she seems to fit. Again, lots of speed in here, but she’s turning back and has been tested at this distance while some of the other speedy fillies have not.
We wish you the best of luck and, above all, enjoy the first day of Saratoga!!
