From Mary Lou to Tom; Jim Dandy to Fourstardave; Siro’s to backyard tailgating; and morning workouts to give aways; Saratoga has a cast of heroes, customs, and institutions which make it, in our opinion, the most unique sporting venue on Earth. Over the next 40 Days, we will profile 40 of these legends and traditions, adding our own memories and experiences from 30 plus years of summering at the Spa. It’s our Salute to Saratoga. We hope you enjoy following along.

During racing season, there are really two interrelated parts to Saratoga: the world class racing that happens in the afternoon, and then the social and nightlife scene that happens after the races are over.  Nothing connects those two parts better than today’s Salute to Saratoga item:  Hats Off to Saratoga.

Continue reading 40 Days: A Salute To Saratoga–Hats Off to Saratoga →

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Throughout the Saratoga meet, we will be posting our handicapping and analysis for the major stake races on the big days.  What better place to start than the two stake races on Opening Day?  Here are our thoughts on The Schuylerville and The Lake George:

Race 4 – The Schuylerville, 6f on the Main Track, 2YO Fillies

This stake for 2 year old fillies has been run since 1918. In that time, it has seen winners who have gone on to great careers. To name a few: Cicada, La Prevoyante, Turnback the Alarm, Ashado, and Mine That Bird. Fine, I made one of those up. But this race, for many of these horses, will be a make or break moment – can they hang with stakes company? Will they start down the road to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies? Or will they return to allowance company and try to move through their conditions before jumping back into stakes races? This year’s renewal, which kicks off the 2015 stakes schedule at the Spa, is a solid bunch of two year old fillies.

In the top spot, I am going with Decked Out. This one has to tangle with Moment is Right again, but should benefit from the added 1/16th of a mile in this race, and should also save ground starting from the rail, as opposed to the 3 wide trip she endured last time. The Desormeaux brothers hook up as the jockey-trainer combo, and offer nice ROI numbers in both stake races and off layoffs between 31 and 60 days. At 4/1, the price offers some value – and she may drift up, as the betting public hammers the Pletcher 2 year old Positively Royal.

In second, I have to go with Positively Royal. Todd Pletcher’s numbers at Saratoga with 2 year olds in stake races is absurd. He teams up with Castellano on this one, and Pletcher and Castellano have an unbelievable $2.09 ROI over 361 starts as a jockey-trainer combo. While this one offers little value on the tote board, there is no doubt that Pletcher will have her primed to run her best race on opening day. Leave her off your tickets at your own risk.

Finally, to round out the trifecta, I am going with Banree, the “other” Wesley Ward horse in here. She looked like a star in winning her maiden at Keeneland, drawing away to win by four lengths in a 4.5 furlong dash (classic Wes Ward). She came back against the boys in the Tremont on June 5th, and lost all chance at the start, tossing her head and then racing 5 wide throughout the race. She has trained very nicely for this race, firing two bullets in her last three works, including a first of 13 at the distance at Keeneland on July 17. Wes Ward runners have not run up to their prior numbers in recent Saratoga meetings, and that’s why I moved this one down a notch or two. But she offers more value than Moment is Right.

One note on Moment is Right – she is obviously a nice filly, but she has had it her way on the front end in both starts, getting clear by four lengths early in both her career efforts. I think there is little chance that she clears this field by that margin, and as a result, she will be forced to do something she has never done before. At 5/2, if she wins, it will be at my expense.

Race 9—The Lake George, 1 and 1/16^th Miles on the Turf, 3YO Fillies

There is no shortage of speed in the 20^th edition of the Lake George.  I count as many as eight horses who have a propensity to be at or on the lead.  Thus, I think the race sets up for a stalking or closing type.  Unfortunately, most of those candidates appeared slow to me, so I instead focused on trying to find a pressing type who has shown the ability to rate.

Using that approach, I like Mrs. McDougal in the top spot.  There is no disputing Chad Brown’s turf route record at Saratoga—32% over the last three meets and 64% in the money.  Mrs. McD. gets a strong jockey/trainer connection adding Ortiz—who won on her two back.  I also love the turn back angle here.  Combine that with the stalking effort she showed in her debut and I like her chances to get first run on the leaders, yet have the stamina to hold on. My biggest concern is the post.  With speed inside her there is potential she goes very wide around the first turn.  Posts 9-12 were just 1 for 35 going 1 and 1/16^th last year on the main turf course.

McGaughey’s All In Fun is coming off of her best effort—a strong second to Miss Temple City at Pimlico over two months back.  We liked her that day and see no reason to be scared off here.  She’s lightly raced, has been improving, and with the time off (Shug is 31% and an insane 85% in the money with thirteen starters coming off 60-90 day layoffs at Saratoga the last three years), could be ready for her career best—which should be good enough here.

After those two, the race is really wide open, with arguments for several horses, namely the 1, 3, 8, 10  11, and 12.  I probably like the 11 and 12 best, but the outside posts scare me.  That said, I’ll go with Robillard third despite the post concerns.  McLaughlin has strong in the money percentages both in stakes andwith horses coming off two month layoffs at Saratoga.  She’s very lightly raced but has improved each time and showed a nice stalking style two back.

Finally, given the odds, I will use Lady Zuzu, despite Lukas’ rough Saratoga record over the last few years.  If you can overlook her last effort—where she went 47 and change on the lead going 1 and ¼ miles against superstar Lady Eli—she seems to fit.  Again, lots of speed in here, but she’s turning back and has been tested at this distance while some of the other speedy fillies have not.

We wish you the best of luck and, above all, enjoy the first day of Saratoga!!

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Since Affirmed beat Alydar yet again to take the Triple Crown in 1978, 13 horses have come to Belmont with a chance to join the most exclusive club in Thoroughbred Racing.  Now its American Pharoah’s turn.  In the words of George Santayana, “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”  American Pharoah has a lot of take-aways from the last 13 failed Triple Crown attempts.  It might be June, but for American Pharoah, school is in session.

Just like that.  In a split second, it can be over.  Years, months, weeks of preparation, down the drain in the blink of an eye.  One of the biggest moments for American Pharoah on Saturday will be the split second when the gates open and he takes his first few strides.  As the old cliche goes, Pharoah can’t win the race in those few strides, but he certainly can lose it.  In fact, we’ve seen in before.

Continue reading Lessons of the Past 37 Years: Get Off to a Good Start →

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Since Affirmed beat Alydar yet again to take the Triple Crown in 1978, 13 horses have come to Belmont with a chance to join the most exclusive club in Thoroughbred Racing.  Now its American Pharoah’s turn.  In the words of George Santayana, “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”  American Pharoah has a lot of take-aways from the last 13 failed Triple Crown attempts.  It might be June, but for American Pharoah, school is in session.

It’s been twenty-six years, it’s just one furlong away…

Those words echoed over the roar of 120,000 fans as Smarty Jones held on grimly down the Belmont stretch, futilely trying to hold off a surging Birdstone as Stewart Elliot came to the realization that he had no more horse and a lot more ground to cover. And it wasn’t to be – the undefeated Smarty Jones was vanquished for the first time in his career, and on the biggest stage the sport has to offer.

Continue reading Lessons of the Past 37 Years: Don’t Move Too Soon →

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Happy Derby Day!! Kentucky Oaks Day was a great success for the Thorobros. We finally hit the Kentucky Oaks Pick 4, a goal that we had been chasing for years—and one which had been tantalizingly close before. We are hoping that our handicapping stays on point, and that we continue our hot streak into the biggest race day of the year.

As usual, Churchill Downs has put together a spectacular Derby Day card. The Pick 4 features four graded stakes, each with star-studded fields. From a betting perspective, we unfortunately do not see as much value in the Derby card as we did in the Oaks card, but you have to play the hand you are dealt.

Continue reading The Biggest Day: Handicapping The Kentucky Derby Pick 4 →

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In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 3, 2015.

Number 3: Smarty Jones (2004)

Smarty Jones is Philadelphia’s horse. He was not regally bred, he debuted at Philadelphia Park, a decidedly second-tier track, his trainer was John Servis, and his jockey was Stewart Elliott, who had toiled in relative obscurity for his entire riding career. Philadelphia is a blue collar town that cares passionately about its sports teams, and appreciates more than anything an athlete that shows up to work every day and always gets the job done. Smarty Jones certainly came to race every time he went into the starting gate and save for the final race of his career, he never had a horse hit the wire in front of him.

Continue reading 12 Days of Derby: Number 3 – Smarty Jones →

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In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 3, 2015.

Number 6: Silver Charm (1997)

Bob Baffert and Bob and Beverley Lewis – the Killer B’s – took Silver Charm from a $16,500 yearling, whom they purchased privately for $85,000, to being one of the best horses ever, and a near Triple Crown winner. Charm was Baffert’s first Derby winner, ushering in an era where the biggest name at Triple Crown season was generally “Baffert.” Indeed, that is the case this year. Silver Charm also prevailed in a year that featured a true Triple Crown rivalry involving truly excellent horses, besting Free House and Captain Bodgit in the Derby and the Preakness, and then beating Free House again in the Belmont, while losing narrowly to Touch Gold, tantalizingly close to a Triple Crown

Prelude

Silver Charm had six starts before the Kentucky Derby, and showed his class in all of them, with three firsts and three seconds. He broke his maiden in his second start at Del Mar, and then would go on to capture the Del Mar Futurity (G2) to conclude his brief two year old season. ‘Charm next surfaced as a three year old, opening his season in the San Vicente at Santa Anita, prevailing over Free House and putting up a 110 Beyer speed figure, then a 13 point career top. It was the beginning of an epic back and forth rivalry with Free House that would stretch through the 1997 Triple Crown season.

Silver Charm then came back in the San Felipe, but this time Free House turned the tables on him, winning by three quarters of a length. The two rivals would square off again in the Santa Anita Derby, and this time Silver Charm had a new jockey. Gary Stevens took over for Chris McCarron for the SA Derby, but on that Saturday it made no difference as Free House once again prevailed, this time by a mere head. So the stage was set for Louisville, as the West Coast’s best were set to once again go head to head, but this time, they would be joined by the Wood Memorial winner, the best of the east, Team Valor’s Captain Bodgit.

The Race

What a fantastic Kentucky Derby. Silver Charm gets a world class ride from Gary Stevens, rating off the lead for the first three quarters of a mile. The early part of the race is a fairly controlled duel between Pulpit and Free House, with a first half mile in 47 seconds and change. The early pace scenario also featured Shammy Davis, which I mention only because it is a funny name. Silver Charm sat just behind those leaders, ready to pounce. As the field moved around the far turn, Silver Charm was ready to pounce.

Stevens and ‘Charm make a perfect move off the turn, just as Free House takes over the lead. Phantom on Tour was in behind those horses, with Jerry Bailey looking around for running room. As the horses hit the top of the stretch, Silver Charm wears down Free House and Pulpit, although both horses fought gamely down the lane, with Free House eventually finishing third and Pulpit hanging on desperately for fourth. But Silver Charm was far from home free – Captain Bodgit, the favorite, was looming. Streaking down the middle of the track as Dave Johnson gives his signature “and down the stretch they come” call, Captain Bodgit closes on Silver Charm, and Silver Charm comes out ever so slightly, bothering Captain Bodgit just a bit. Was that the difference in a race decided by a half-length? Personally, I don’t think so. Once Captain Bodgit pulled next to Silver Charm, ‘Charm showed just how tough a horse he was, finding another gear and stopping Bodgit’s rally long enough to hit the wire. The celebration that followed showed just how great a race it was and how important the win was to ‘Charm’s connections. Stevens, Baffert and the Lewises all go crazy as Dave Johnson gushes about how good a Derby it was.

1997 Kentucky Derby

Silver Charm would once again tangle with Captain Bodgit and Free House in Baltimore, prevailing once again to set up a chance for history in New York. Neither Free House nor the Captain were deterred, however, as the connections for both horses announced their intentions to move ahead to the Belmont, seeking to deny Silver Charm the ultimate prize. Later in the week after the Preakness, ‘Charm’s chances got just a bit easier, as Captain Bodgit’s connections announced that the horse had sustained an injury at Pimlico and would be retired. The announcement derailed the third act of what was shaping up to be one of the great three horse rivalries in racing history.

It was not to be at Belmont for Silver Charm, with Touch Gold running on to deny Silver Charm the Crown. Silver Charm finished a respectable second, and was turned out for some well-deserved time off.

1997 Preakness Stakes

1997 Belmont Stakes

Aftermath

The aftermath of Silver Charm’s Triple Crown run was fantastic. He took basically the rest of his three year old season off, coming back in the G1 Malibu in December, finishing second over 7 furlongs. He came back with a vengeance during his four year old year, however, winning the San Fernando and the Strub at Santa Anita, before making the journey to Dubai to take the 1998 Dubai World Cup by a nose. He hit a bit of a rut upon his return stateside, finishing second in the Stephen Foster and an unsightly fifth – by 27 lengths – in the San Diego. He busted out of his slump big time in the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway, however, winning by 17 lengths and posting a ridiculous 123 Beyer speed figure. He followed that up with a win in the Goodwood and a second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, losing to Awesome Again (the same horse that had beaten him earlier in the year in the Foster). For good measure, Silver Charm came back and won the Clark to close out his year. Despite his stellar four year old season, Silver Charm lost horse of the year to Skip Away, who had reeled off 9 straight graded stakes victories before going down in defeat in the ’98 Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

1998 Dubai World Cup

Silver Charm came back for more in ’99, the San Pasquale and then putting up show performances in the Donn and the Big Cap. The ’99 Big Cap, won by Free House, was a great race, and Silver Charm’s 118 Beyer was only good enough for show honors. Silver Charm again made the journey to the Middle East, but could do no better than sixth in the ’99 Dubai World Cup. He followed that up with a 4th in the Stephen Foster before calling it a career.

Silver Charm retired to Three Chimneys Farm in 2000. He spent the next four breeding seasons in the U.S. before going to Japan. His foals include multiple graded stakes winners Preachinatthebar, Miss Isella, and Spring Waltz. In 2007, Silver Charm was elected to the Racing Hall of Fame.

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In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 3, 2015.

 Number 8: Real Quiet (1998)

When I think about Real Quiet, I can’t help but think about the ’98 Belmont – not the Kentucky Derby. So, so close. I really can’t imagine what Bob Baffert, Mike Pegram and Kent Desormeaux must have been thinking in the moments after they finished four inches short of a Triple Crown. Fourteen year old me, of course, was jumping up and down – I loved Victory Gallop, and as a native Saratogian, took a dim view of Mr. Baffert and west coast racing in general. The east coast bias changed (a little) as I got older – one trip to Del Mar will tend to have that effect – and nobody can deny the success of Baffert, Pegram and Desormeaux over the years. But I digress – this series is about the Kentucky Derby, and the 1998 renewal was a classic.

Continue reading 12 Days of Derby: Number 8 — 1998 Real Quiet →

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In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbies and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 2, 2015.

Number 12: Charismatic (1999)

Charismatic was a great, and ultimately heartbreaking, story. But he also was a story of redemption, overcoming adversity to win the Kentucky Derby in the first place, and then overcoming even greater adversity just to survive a fractured leg suffered in the Belmont Stakes to make it to the breeding shed. While Charismatic may not be the best horse to ever win the Kentucky Derby – in fact, he may not even be close – its hard to imagine a better story

Prelude

Charismatic was owned by Bob and Beverly Lewis – among the bluest of racing’s blue bloods. But anybody with a spare $62,500 could have owned him in February of ’99, just three months before he won the Kentucky Derby. Charismatic’s record coming into Churchill Downs was 14 starts, with just 3 wins, 2 seconds and 3 third place finishes. He had run for in two different claiming races – once to break his maiden, and a second time in the aforementioned February ’99 claiming contest at Santa Anita. That February claiming race kick-started something for Charismatic, though, as he followed that with three consecutive 90+ Beyer speed figures, including a second place finish in the El Camino Real Derby and a fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. Sensing that Charismatic was getting better as he continued to race, his legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas fired him right back in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. With Jerry Bailey aboard for the first time, Charismatic exploded, running a 108 Beyer speed figure and taking down his first graded stakes victory at 12-1. Lukas may not have known it at the time, but he had found his next Derby winner.

Unfortunately, he would have to find a new Derby rider, as Bailey was already committed to riding Worldly Manner, the winner of the Del Mar Futurity and Best Pal stakes as a two-year old. This is where we welcome Chris Antley to the story – and the Ant-man came through big time.

The Race

Charismatic was 31-1 when the gates opened in the ’99 Derby. While that year’s race did not have any clear cut favorite (the post time chalk was the entry of Excellent Meeting and General Challenge), there were some real big time horses in the race: Menifee, Cat Thief, Lemon Drop Kid and Stephen Got Even, to name a few. In fact, Charismatic was the third longest shot on the board, with only Answer Lively and First American at longer odds. Charismatic and Chris Antley, however, ran a magnificent race – even overcoming getting shuffled back around the first turn to get first run down the lane and then hold off the hard charging Menifee at the wire.

When you watch this race a few times, perhaps the most notable thing about the stretch drive is Menifee. Menifee is absolutely FLYING down the lane, and ends up losing to Charismatic by a rapidly diminishing neck. D. Wayne Lukas is known for telling his Derby jockeys to make their move when they see the “track kitchen,” which is off the far turn. Lukas believes that this will allow his horses the best chance at getting first run and then squirting clear for the stretch drive. This race is a good example of that philosophy coming to fruition. Charismatic got first run, got clear, and there simply was not enough time for Menifee and Pat Day (perhaps living up to his reputation as sometimes patient to a fault) to get up. While he may have been saved by the wire, Charismatic’s performance in the Kentucky Derby was sublime – he was not going to be denied down the lane, passing horses down the middle of the track the others – except for the hard charging Menifee – were no match. Charismatic matched his 108 Beyer speed figure from the Lexington Stakes, which was 13 points higher than his previous top. Charismatic had pulled off the upset and run the race of his life – but could he do it again?

1999 Kentucky Derby

Aftermath

As the Triple Crown trail moved to Baltimore, the public decided that Charismatic’s victory was a nice story, but a fluke. He was sent post-ward in the Preakness at 8-1, with Menifee as the 2-1 chalk. Charismatic, the Derby winner, was the fifth choice in the wagering, also behind Cat Thief, Worldly Manner and Excellent Meeting. Worldly Manner and Excellent Meeting would finish second to last and last, respectively. Charismatic, of course, would win – once again besting Menifee and moving to New York City with a chance to capture the Triple Crown. And that is where Charismatic’s journey took a tragic turn. He led the Belmont Stakes as the horses reached the final furlong – one eighth of a mile to immortality. But Charismatic took a bad step and, though he still finished third behind Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse, he had broken his leg in two places. Chris Antley pulled him up just past the wire, cradling his broken leg. Antley’s actions are widely credited with saving Charismatic’s life and allowing him to pursue a career in the breeding shed. But that was the last we would see of Charismatic on the track.

1999 Preakness Stakes

1999 Belmont Stakes

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