In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbys and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbys of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 2, 2015.
Six minutes.
Over 360 seconds.
That’s how long the viewing public waited after the conclusion of the race until they finally learned who won the 1996 Kentucky Derby. Was it Cavonnier clinging to the lead on the inside, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Chris McCarron? Or was the winner Grindstone, flying on the outside, trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Jerry Bailey. The two had crossed the wire in seeming harmony. And for six minutes, no one knew who won.
In the run up to the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Thorobros took a good hard look at the past 20 years of Derbys and tried to rank the top twelve. We were able to arrive at this highly scientific ranking through a complicated logarithm that generated a foolproof list of the best Kentucky Derbies of the past two decades. This year’s renewal of America’s most famous horse race looks to be particularly strong – perhaps we will have a new addition to these rankings come May 2, 2015.
Number 11: 2012 I’ll Have Another
The 2012 Kentucky Derby will always rank highly on Thorobros’ personal lists. It marked the first and only time that all three of us were together at Churchill Downs for the race. It was an awesome weekend–although not entirely profitable. Unfortunately, as described in more detail below, each of us was scared away from playing winner I’ll Have Another on top, but I’ll Have Another, as he did time and time again in 2012, proved his doubters wrong.
In honor of this weekend’s Arkansas Derby, we take a look back at the 2004 running, which occurred 11 years ago today, where Smarty Jones stamped himself as Derby favorite and took another step towards a $5 million bonus.
Everyone remembers Smarty’s Kentucky Derby win, Preakness romp, and valiant Belmont effort. But what is not written about nearly as much, were his two wins at Oaklawn in early 2004 which put him in line to win a $5 million bonus by capturing the Kentucky Derby. 2004 marked Oaklawn’s 100 years anniversary, and to do something big to honor the centennial, Charles Cella, the owner of Oaklawn, offered a $5 million bonus to any horse who would win the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, and the Kentucky Derby. It seemed like a nice promotion but also a safe bet as only one horse had ever completed that trifecta–Sunny’s Halo in 1983.
But as Smarty drew clear at Churchill on a rainy first Saturday in May, Oaklawn’s little promotion, turned into a big pay day for Smarty and his connections, while keeping Oaklawn in the spot light over a month after its meet ended. And no one (other than Smarty’s owners, presumably) seemed happier about it than Cella.
“I have been around horse racing for more than 50 years and have seen a lot of the sport’s greatest races, but watching Smarty Jones pull away for the win in Kentucky was the greatest sports moment I have ever witnessed,” Cella said. “I wanted that horse to win as much as anybody. We feel as though he has become part of our family and I think I can speak for all Arkansas horse racing fans in echoing the same sentiments. He has become a true Arkansas sports hero and no state appreciates its sports heroes with greater affection than Arkansas.”
Incentives have always been a popular tool used by race tracks to attract top talent and generate a buzz. Some might question whether the value of these incentives is worth the cost of the policy, and a true assessment of their success may be difficult to ascertain. On the one hand, today, when people remember Smarty, his Arkansas Derby win, or even the big bonus, do not immediately come to mind. On the other hand, the promotion delivered Oaklawn a star colt, increased the profile of the race, provided a great story to tell on the 100 year anniversary, and generated marketing material to last for the track’s lifetime. I’d be interested to hear whether Oaklawn officials believe they received sufficient bang for their buck.
As for a recount of the 2004 Arkansas Derby, we’ll leave that to the replay where you can watch Smarty hold on for a two length win.
And to get a sense of the buzz surrounding Smarty following his win at Oaklawn, here is a day after the race article from the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette in Little Rock.
Enjoy the 2015 Arkansas Derby and an otherwise star studded weekend of racing from Oaklawn.
After 18 candidates and 16 matchups, only two horses remain to claim the crown as the inaugural Horse Madness champion. No surprises, the top two seeds, Zenyatta and Wise Dan will meet for the championship. We will post our pre-game summary tomorrow morning when voting for the championship will open.
In sum, the tournament has largely followed script with only a few mild upsets. While early on, it appeared that voters favored the “now” horse (Main Sequence over Blind Luck) or horses with more of a wow factor than a grind it out style (Uncle Mo over Shackelford), later rounds revealed that voters still valued overall career achievements more than potential (Game on Dude over I’ll Have Another and Animal Kingdom over Shared Belief). It will be interesting to see what sways voters in tomorrow’s championship.
For your reference, below are the tournament rules and overview as originally posted. Thanks for following along and see you back tomorrow for the Queen Z v. Wise Dan finale.
The Problem: The sport of racing has enjoyed great champions over the past five years. From the late race heroics of Zenyatta to the determination and resolve of Wise Dan. However, one of the most frustrating aspects of racing is the inability to settle debates as to the “greatest” on the track. Divisions created by gender, surface, distance, and geography make it nearly impossible and impractical for the best of the best to meet or for debates to be resolved.
In the spirit of March Madness, we are conducting a little experiment to determine how racing fans would evaluate the “best”, “greatest” or “most popular” (or any other criteria you think is applicable) horse of the last 5 or so years. Think of this as the “People’s Choice Awards” for racing. Use whatever criteria you think best determines which horses advance from round to round. Let us know how you arrived at your conclusions.How it works: Each day from March 16 through the end of the month, we will feature one matchup. We will post career specifics and some highlight races on our site to help you in your handicapping. Then you the fans will vote– favorite the tweet if choosing horse A, retweet if selecting horse B. Voting windows will close by 10:00 p.m. each night. The horse with the most votes will advance to the next round.
In the spirit of March Madness, we are conducting a little experiment to determine how racing fans would evaluate the “best”, “greatest” or “most popular” (or any other criteria you think is applicable) horse of the last 5 or so years. Think of this as the “People’s Choice Awards” for racing. Use whatever criteria you think best determines which horses advance from round to round. Let us know how you arrived at your conclusions.How it works: Each day from March 16 through the end of the month, we will feature one matchup. We will post career specifics and some highlight races on our site to help you in your handicapping. Then you the fans will vote– favorite the tweet if choosing horse A, retweet if selecting horse B. Voting windows will close by 10:00 p.m. each night. The horse with the most votes will advance to the next round.
In the spirit of March Madness, we are conducting a little experiment to determine how racing fans would evaluate the “best”, “greatest” or “most popular” (or any other criteria you think is applicable) horse of the last 5 or so years. Think of this as the “People’s Choice Awards” for racing. Use whatever criteria you think best determines which horses advance from round to round. Let us know how you arrived at your conclusions.How it works: Each day from March 16 through the end of the month, we will feature one matchup. We will post career specifics and some highlight races on our site to help you in your handicapping. Then you the fans will vote– favorite the tweet if choosing horse A, retweet if selecting horse B. Voting windows will close by 10:00 p.m. each night. The horse with the most votes will advance to the next round.
In the spirit of March Madness, we are conducting a little experiment to determine how racing fans would evaluate the “best”, “greatest” or “most popular” (or any other criteria you think is applicable) horse of the last 5 or so years. Think of this as the “People’s Choice Awards” for racing. Use whatever criteria you think best determines which horses advance from round to round. Let us know how you arrived at your conclusions.
How it works: Each day from March 16 through the end of the month, we will feature one matchup. We will post career specifics and some highlight races on our site to help you in your handicapping. Then you the fans will vote– favorite the tweet if choosing horse A, retweet if selecting horse B. Voting windows will close by 10:00 p.m. each night. The horse with the most votes will advance to the next round.
Today’s 4 v. 5 seed matchup features a pair of California based Classic Division runners. However, the similarities between I’ll Have Another and Game on Dude end there. One had a brilliant stretch of races only to have his career cut short because of injury, the other enjoyed a lengthy career filled with ups and downs. To me, this is the most compelling first round matchup as it will hopefully indicate what fans value more–promise and potential cut short by injury or longevity and sustained success from an overachiever.
I’ll Have Another
I’ll Have Another was a tough nosed runner for Doug O’Neil who despite two wins at Santa Anita (The Robert Lewis and Santa Anita Handicap) to begin his three year old campaign, was 15-1 in the 2012 Kentucky Derby after drawing post 19 and employing a relatively unknown rider, Mario Gutierrez. However, I’ll Have Another sat behind suicide fractions set by Bodemeister and the curiously entered Trinniberg, before making his move down the stretch to win the Roses going away.
IHA and Bodemeister squared off again in the Preakness–with the public making Bode the post time favorite. Not to be denied, however, I’ll Have Another rallied to pass Bodemeister (who set fractions two seconds slower than the Derby) just before the wire. It was an incredibly exciting Preakness which set the stage for IHA to head to Ne York in hopes of capturing the Triple Crown. However, amidst reports from clockers that IHA was not himself in the mornings, Doug O’Neil announced on Belmont eve that the horse was being scratched and retired due to injury. Union Rags went on to win the Belmont earning an uninspiring Beyer figure. What could have been?
Game On Dude won 16 of 34 starts over the course of his five year career. He captured eight grade 1′s and every prestigious race in California, including becoming the only horse to ever win three Santa Anita Handicaps.
However, Game On Dude is remembered by many for his disappointing losses–including three defeats in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Although a game second in the race in 2011, Game On Dude was soundly defeated in 2012 and 2013 as the favorite running at his home track of Santa Anita.
As Steve Haskins remarked, however, these losses should not define the Dude:
“When ranking Game On Dude among the greatest geldings, it is his accomplishments that must be considered more than his defeats. Kelso, Forego, and John Henry—arguably the three greatest geldings of our time, or perhaps of all time—lost 91 races among them….If one wanted to describe Game On Dude in a short sentence, it would be, ‘He knew only one way to run—fast!”‘
In the spirit of March Madness, we are conducting a little experiment to determine how racing fans would evaluate the “best”, “greatest” or “most popular” (or any other criteria you think is applicable) horse of the last 5 or so years. Think of this as the “People’s Choice Awards” for racing. Use whatever criteria you think best determines which horses advance from round to round. Let us know how you arrived at your conclusions.
How it works: Each day from March 16 through the end of the month, we will feature one matchup. We will post career specifics and some highlight races on our site to help you in your handicapping. Then you the fans will vote– favorite the tweet if choosing horse A, retweet if selecting horse B. Voting windows will close by 10:00 p.m. each night. The horse with the most votes will advance to the next round.
Here is the Bracket. In the first two matchups, flare and dominant victories appeared more valuable than grind and gameness as Uncle Mo defeated Shackelford and Main Sequence put away Blind Luck. Yesterday, in a battle of mares, Royal Delta soundly defeated current star Untapable.
Today, we feature another inner-divisional battle–California Chrome v. Blame. We all remember what happened the last time Blame squared off against a Left Coast hero. Can Blame break the hearts of the Golden State again?
California Chrome
Last June it appeared as though California Chrome was on the fast track to rewrite history. He had captured the Derby and Preakness in impressive fashion, and stood a mile and a half from completing racing’s greatest challenge, the Triple Crown. However, an awkward start, a gashed leg, and an arguably late move down the stretch squashed Chrome’s bid. His legacy was further tarnished by his owner’s post race rant and a subsequent 6th place finish at Parx.
When all appeared lost, Chrome rallied with a strong show finish in the Breeders Cup Classic, followed by a display of versatility with a Grade 1 Turf score at Del Mar. The campaign earned Chrome 2014 Horse of Year Honors.
Unfortunately, Chrome’s 2015 campaign did not begin strongly, as the horse went toe to toe with Shared Belief and was put away in the final sixteenth. Did Chrome move too early? Were the fractions too fast? Or is Belief just better? We’ll have to wait for that answer, as Chrome has headed to Dubai.
“B–lame”, as Trevor Denmon proclaimed, will always best be known for his dethroning of Queen Z in her final race, the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic. However, Blame was much more than a one race wonder.
In 2010, Blame started 5 races, at four different race tracks, winning four times and finishing second once (to a freak performance by Haynesfield in the JCGC). Blame also played giant killer in the 2010 Whitney, catching 1-2 favorite Quality Road in the final strides (I had forgotten Mine That Bird was in this race–he got one call).
Retweet our tweets if you think California Chrome should advance or favorite them if you believe Blame is the winner. Voting ends at 10:00 p.m. Thursday.
Friday’s matchup is an intriguing one featuring Rachel Alexandra and Mucho Macho Man.
In the spirit of March Madness, we are conducting a little experiment to determine how racing fans would evaluate the “best”, “greatest” or “most popular” (or any other criteria you think is applicable) horse of the last 5 or so years. Think of this as the “People’s Choice Awards” for racing. Use whatever criteria you think best determines which horses advance from round to round. Let us know how you arrived at your conclusions.
How it works: Each day from March 16 through the end of the month, we will feature one matchup. We will post career specifics and some highlight races on our site to help you in your handicapping. Then you the fans will vote– favorite the tweet if choosing horse A, retweet if selecting horse B. Voting windows will close by 10:00 p.m. each night. The horse with the most votes will advance to the next round.
Today’s matchup features a contrast in styles–the hard knocking Shackelford v. the often dominant Uncle Mo. Retweet the tweet setting forth today’s matchup if you believe Shackelford should advance, or favorite it if you think Uncle Mo wins this matchup. The winner gets a date with Queen Z.
Shackelford: It wasn’t always pretty, but few race horses over the past five years showed the grit and grind of Shackelford. Winner of three grade ones–including the 2012 Preakness–and on the board in four more, Shackelford was a horse that always commanded respect.
Uncle Mo: After a dominating 2yo campaign, the racing world was convinced that Uncle Mo was its next superstar. However, injuries derailed him from the Triple Crown and a disappointing Breeders’ Cup Classic will always lessen his legacy. That said, how many other horses in the last five years had a New York Times article written about them which drew comparisons to Secretariat?
