Happy Oaks Day! A Thorobros favorite. We love the anticipation and traditions that accompany this excellent day of Friday racing. A fruity and refreshing signature drink served in a stemless wine glass; an afternoon packed full of quality stakes races; and of course, the ultimate pink shirt Friday! We at Thorobros have also instilled our own Oaks Day traditions—unveiling our annual mint julep column (featuring questionable cocktails inspired by this year’s Derby participants) http://thorobros.com/2017/05/2017-thorobros-mint-julep-guide/ and our Oaks Day Pick 4 post.
The Oaks “All Stakes” Pick 4 is our holy grail and Super Bowl. It was also our White Whale—having suffered multiple bad beats on this wager (e.g., St John’s River). But that changed in 2015 when our $1 all singles ticket hit the Pick 4.
It’s with this history in mind, that we proudly call the Oaks All Stakes Pick 4 our favorite bet of the year. So it was with great anticipation that we reviewed the entries and race sequence on Tuesday for the 2017 All Stakes Pick 4. But to our amazement, we saw that the sanctity of this wager had been disrupted by race officials inexplicably sticking an optional claimer in the middle of this sequence. It is the equivalent of CBS airing a three on three matchup from the Albuquerque Recreation League in between Final Four Games on the first Saturday night in April. Unforgiveable!
But we digress. It is still a great sequence, and a fun bet, even if some of the shine has been removed by the 9th race. So below is our analysis of the Oaks All Stakes Pick 4!
WARNING: We tried our best to handicap for the wet, but assumed that the 10th race will stay on the turf. Follow us tomorrow @thorobros for updates on track conditions and trends.
Race 8—The Eight Belles Grade 2—7f Three Year Old Fillies $200,000
This is a tough and competitive field for this year’s renewal of the Eight Belles. We have three horses on our “A” team, and a couple “B” teamers to use as back-ups. In this race, we were looking for a three year old filly that is rounding into form, hopefully sitting on a big race, and who had experience at 7 furlongs and/or over the Churchill Downs dirt. Also, since it looks like there might be some moisture in the track, we considered any wet pedigree or form the horse might have.
A Team: 1 – Benner Island (10/1 ML); 2 – Union Strike (3-1 ML); and 11 – Let It Ride Mom (8/1 ML)
Benner Island is coming off a rough trip at Keeneland in a race won by a horse we consider a contender in the Oaks later (spoiler alert). The horse was pulled up and bumped in the stretch, losing all chance, but still tried hard to the wire. She gets a jockey switch to JJ Castellano, who has won 3/5 for Brad Cox over the last 17 months. She has a win over the CD strip and a second place finish at 7 furlongs, albeit over the synthetic at Arlington. At 10/1, she presents a lot of potential value, even if she drifts down a bit from that number. We also like the morning line favorite, Union Strike. The horse is a Grade 1 winner at 7 furlongs, and is coming off an impressive win with a 90 Beyer figure in a listed stake at Santa Anita, where she made a sweeping, four wide move to win by more than a length. This is her first trip out of Southern California, which is cause for a bit of concern, but she is very fast and she should work out a trip similar to her last race against this field. Our final A-teamer is Let It Ride Mom. Trainer Mark Casse is taking this one south of the Canadian border for the first time, and trying her on dirt for the first time. But she hasn’t run since last November, and Casse fires at 18% with horses off this type of layoff, plus her stellar workout line (over the Churchill dirt) indicates significant improvement now that she is a 3 year old.
B Team: 7 – Golden Mischief (12/1 ML); 9 – Florida Fabulous (9/2 ML)
Our first B teamer is Golden Mischief. This Steve Asmussen trainee has wins over the CD dirt and at 7 furlongs, so she ticks those boxes. She has 5 wins in 10 lifetime starts, so she likes to hit the wire first, and though she’s never encountered a less-than-fast track in her career, she is bred to handle a little moisture in the ground. At 12/1 on the morning line, we couldn’t leave her off. We also needed to include Florida Fabulous, who may be the speed of the speed in this race. She has two wins by open lengths in two career starts at Gulfstream Park for David Fawkes. In fact, she has never been behind a horse at any point of call in either of her races, so you know Paco Lopez will be gunning it at the bell. This one has never run at CD, and both of her races were one turn miles. But she is clearly fit enough to excel at 7 furlongs, and if she can make the lead without too much trouble, she may never look back.
Race 9—Pip Moyer Rec League Quarterfinal (aka $62,000 NX2 Optional Claimer) 1 and 1/16th Miles
You already know how we feel about this race in principle. But aside from our general gripe, it is a very nice and competitive Optional Claimer. Unfortunately, we landed largely on logical horses for the A team but got a little more creative with our B’s.
A Team: 3- Taketothestreets (6-1 M/L); 4- River Echo (4-1 M/L); 7- Tom’s d’Etat (7/2 ML)
Tom’s d’Etat has the opportunity to sit on or near the lead in a race which does not feature a ton of early speed. The lightly raced four year old is making the second start of his campaign and has improved from a speed figure stand point in every race. Huge work two back suggests he’s sitting on a big effort. His work mate from that drill recently broke his maiden in impressive fashion. Our top choice.
River Echo has had two very good dirt starts and should enjoy the extra panel. Gets a rider on fire in Rosario. He’s another who has been working well. How he fares in the wet is a bit of a mystery. Assuming he takes to the surface, we expect him to be full of run.
Taketothestreets scratched from Thursday’s stakes race to land in this spot for a tag. He does have two wins at CD and two wins at the distance. His last effort in a G3 was a clunker but if you exclude that effort his numbers are very competitive. He’s turning back a panel and figures to sit right of the first group of horses and get an early run.
B Team: 1- Naval Gazer (12-1 M/L); 9 – Decorated Solider (8-1 M/L); 6 – Capital Letters (12-1 ML)
Naval Gazer is tough to predict. But when he runs his race, look out. He has two strong dirt efforts and could be circling back to a top race. The last time he went from synthetic to dirt he just missed against tougher competition. Bred (and named) to like the wet.
Decorated Soldier has top notch connections in Pletcher and Johnny V and it’s not very often you get 8-1 on them. You are also getting this one off a layoff, which is where Pletcher shines. Distance is a bit of a concern.
Capital Letters is a horse headed the wrong way in his last two starts. BUT he is coming off a very strong work and adds blinkers. If no one steps up to the lead, we expect this one to go and maybe not look back at big odds.
Race 10–The Edgewood Grade 3—1 and 1/16th miles, Three Year Old Fillies, $150,000
Another full and contentious field in this prelude to the Oaks. We landed on two “A” horses and three “B” horses.
A Team: 1/1A – Dream Dancing and La Coronel (8/5 ML); 7 – Proctor’s Ledge (5/1 ML)
It’s pretty hard to get around the favored entry in this race. It’s not clear whether both will start (La Coronel is cross entered in the American Turf on the Derby undercard, and Julien Leparoux is named on both horses), but both have a real chance to win this race. Dream Dancing is coming off a tough 7 wide trip in the Appalachian at Keeneland, but prior to that she had won two in a row at Gulfstream, including a Grade 3 stake. If she rebounds to her South Florida form, she is a major player in this spot. La Coronel is coming off a win in the Appalachian, and is coming into the race in fine form. She has the best last race Beyer speed figure, but she did get a very nice trip in that race. For that reason, we think that Proctor’s Ledge has a good chance to turn the tables on her today, at 5/1 on the morning line. Proctor’s Ledge had a difficult trip in the Appalachian, but nevertheless rallied to pass horses down the lane, ultimately finishing third. If Corey Lanerie can work out a cleaner trip this time, she should come flying down the lane.
B Team: 2 – Bernadiva (12/1 ML); 6 – Stallion Heiress (6/1 ML); 11- Emphatically (15/1 ML)
Our B team is led by Bernardiva, who has shown improvement in each of her races from a Beyer perspective, and should be sitting on a big one with the third start of her form cycle with Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott at the controls. She should enjoy the 1 mile and 1/16 distance and should be able to work out a nice stalking trip from her inside post with a master, JJ Castellano, in the irons. We also will use the speedball of the group, Stallion Heiress, who is three for three over the Gulfstream sod, winning by open lengths each time (albeit there was trouble in the field in her start two back which allowed her to be loose on the lead). It looks like she should be on the lead again in this field, and may take the field wire to wire at a decent 6/1 morning line price. Finally, we are using Emphatically, who has improved in each of her starts from a Beyer perspective, and will need to continue that trend in this race. That said, she gets to cut back 1/16 of a mile, and should be fit as a fiddle coming off a third place finish in a Grade 3 stake out west at Santa Anita. Tom Proctor has a bagel in his last thirty graded stake starts, but we think there is a chance Flavien Prat can help put an end to that at a nice price (15/1 morning line).
Race 11—The Kentucky Oaks Grade 1—1 and 1/8th miles, Three Year Old Fillies, $1M
A Team: 1- Ever So Clever (20-1 ML); 4- Paradise Woods (5/2 ML); 7- Farrell (5-1 M/L); 10- Miss Sky Warrior (9/2 ML)
The headliner of the afternoon is of course the Kentucky Oaks, which features several star fillies. The favorite, however, will be Paradise Woods, a lightly raced West Coast shipper who dominated the field in her last. There is a lot of buzz around this horse. She will be on our tickets, but purely as a saver. This will be her fourth start in just over three months—a tall task for a lightly raced filly in this era of racing. She will be running in her second straight route race and adding an extra panel. There are horses with some early speed to her inside she will need to clear. She is running outside of California for the first time in her career. And most importantly, she will not get an easy lead like she did in the SA Oaks. How will this filly respond when the likes of Miss Sky Warrior and Farrell, more experienced horses who have combined to win nine straight, come at her? At 5/2 we lean towards betting she folds. But by all accounts she has been a star during morning workouts. And we do not want to lose the Pick 4 if it turns out she is the “second coming”.
For us, however, the most likely winner is Farrell. She has won four straight. She has two wins at Churchill and is bred to get the distance. She also has two wins in the wet, conditions she is likely to see on Friday with a monsoon currently hitting Louisville. But what we like most about this filly is that she can win in a variety of ways. Hill can sit behind the leaders and make one move around the turn. He can press the pace early if he finds fractions are slow. Her class, pension to win and ability to adapt make her the top choice.
Another proven winner is Miss Sky Warrior. While the distance is a question for many in this field, MSW is 2 for 2 at 9f. She will have plenty of company up front, which is why we give the edge to Farrell, but for Pick 4 purposes, this winner of five straight is a must use.
With a 14 horse field, potentially in the slop, we’d be remiss if we only played the three favorites. With all the speed signed on, we wanted to add a closer who could splash home at a price. Ever So Clever fits that mold at 20-1. She fell victim to a speed favoring track in her first two starts of 2017. But last out, she caught an honest pace, saved ground on the rail and unleashed an eye catching run to take home the Grade 3 Fantasy. Asmussen has won this race twice, and this filly figures to get a nice ground saving trip with fast fractions to close on.
Value plays for exactas and tris: 9, 12
No B team for this one—we are confident in our A selections. For those looking for more value in vertical race wagers, consider using Wicked Lick and Daddy’s Little Darling underneath. Both should get the distance and both should be running late against an expected honest pace.
A Quick Note on Ticket Building: As we all know too well, picking horses is only half the battle in betting, especially when it comes to pick 4’s. We could go on for pages about ticket building strategies. Sparing you that boredom, in sum, here is what we are thinking.
Employing the A and B multi-ticket method, as discussed above, we will look to play a series of tickets combining our A horses with some of the coverage and value offered by our B horses. Our “all A horse” ticket—using only our best bet A horses in the four races–is pretty light, so we will play that one for an extra unit. We will also play four additional tickets using our A’s in three legs and rotating through each race’s B team.
Other Stakes Action
Follow us on Twitter @Thorobros for live updates as we brave the flood like conditions. But in the interim, here are some thoughts for the other stakes races:
Race 5: A’s: 3, 8, 6 B’s: 1, 4, 5 (3-Big World = 30-1)
Race 6: A’s 4, 9 B’s: 1, 2, 6
Race 7: 3, 8, 9 B’s: 4, 7, 12 (9-Partly Mocha = 15-1)
Good luck, everyone!
