I’ve said it many times, and I’ll repeat it again—Black Eyed Susan Day is one of racing’s best kept secrets. Great racing, lighter crowds, a hospitable race track, the anticipation of Prekaness, and Natty Bohs, make this day one of a Thorobros favorite. Shhh!
We have another stellar BES card for 2017 with opportunities abound. In fact, while we normally like playing the stakes races more than the allowances and claiming races on these big days, you will see some of our best bets are in non stakes races (Races 1, 4, and 14).
The track played honest on Thursday and we expect it to do the same Friday, but be sure to follow us @Thorobros, for any track bias reports. Also, there is a decent chance of rain around race 8 or 9, so that could change some things
Here are some of our thoughts and top plays:
Race 1: My Magician (4)—coming towards a big race. One of our top bets all day.
Race 2: 1, 5. Catching Fireflies in the most likely winner, but 6-1 is a very square price on the 1.
Race 3: The favorites 4 and 7 make sense and must be used. But we also like the 1 Thirst for Truth for some value along with the 6.
Race 4: This undercard event on the green also boasts one of our best bets of the day. Not only does the 10 figure to get first run and show a sneaky quarter point move on the sheets, but he also bears a Thorobro surname—Canny! 10/ 4, 9, 2.
Race 5: Now we are into some stakes. Terra Promessa is the logical favorite and could very well win, but 6/5 is too short a price. We actually like Carrumba best. Adds shades, could get first run on the favorite, and her two best career efforts came third off a layoff—the same scenario she has here! 6/1, 2, 3, 4.
Race 6: This is a spicy allowance race on the turf with 8 horses by our count that could win. Gone Away is our most likely winner, but we will likely be keying the 12 Armoire for value up and down our tickets. Outside post and distance pose some concern, but plenty of room to improve for this lightly raced horse. He should get a nice stalking trip if JJ can navigate him to the inside early. Tricky Escape and Arraign are 15-1 value plays and we will be using on top and underneath.
Race 7: The Pimlico Special—one of the most historic races run in America outside the Triple Crown series and Travers. Shaman Ghost will be a heavy favorite and is the most likely winner. We will play him on top of our value plays to try to make some money here—1, 6, and 9. We will also place a tri and exacta trying to beat him with Watershed and Noble Bird on top as we believe these two are the most likely winners outside of Shaman.
Race 8: This is a tough race. We like 3 and 5 and if forced to pick a winner we’d go with the 5. But there is also some value with the 2 Romantic Music who gets back on the turf where she has shown good form. Box 2, 3, 5. If looking to spread more, 4, 10, 11, 13. The 13 has a tough post but if Rosario picks this one, play it.
Race 9: We like Pretty City Dancer best here. 6-1 and coming back on two weeks rest following an effort that was much better than the 5th place showing she received. She battled against a bias that day trying to close from a five wide path. The horse has never backed up from a speed figure stand point on her sprinting efforts. She cuts back a furlong and should have a wicked pace to close on. 5, 12/ 1, 4, 8, 11.
Race 10: We love Ben’s Cat and will be rooting for the senior citizen. But at 6-1 ML, and likely 4-1 or less come PT, we are playing against him today. Our keys are the 7 and 8. Uncle Youdge is making his second start at 4 and his 2017 debut was very good. If he can move forward off that effort, he will be right in the mix at 20-1. The trainer jockey combo is also winning at a 40% clip. Bombs away! 4,7,8/2, 10
Race 11: The Black Eyed Susan. Tough race. We have a tough time picking one horse for our top spot here, so we will give three we intend to play as A horses—1, 2, 9. Shimmering Aspen is the quickest horse in the field, but this is her first run at two turns. They recently tried her at 7f and she responded with a smashing win. She bred to go this far. Tapa Tapa Tapa has a quarter point move on the ragozin sheets, a promising sign that a horse will move forward again. If we had faith that she could rate effectively, we would be even more enthusiastic. Summer Luck should like the distance and has the ability to close against the speed horses who are questionable at getting 1 mile and 1/8th.
Race 12: 3 and 5 are our keys, with the 3 being 10-1. Also watch for the 16 horse if he draws in. 3,5/4, 9, 16
Race 13: Lovable Lady at 10-1. All we need to say. 1/5,9
Race 14: if you’ve made it this far, no reason to bail now. And you are rewarded with another top selection—Head for the Shore 12-1. 8,11/ 1, 4, 7, 10.
Good luck everyone!
