Horse Racing’s Super Bowl is upon us. Happy Kentucky Derby Day everyone! From serious handicappers to the casual party goer, everybody loves the Kentucky Derby. And Number 143 promises to be an exciting edition with no clear cut superstar and each favorite having a serious knock or question mark. We will take some big swings in hopes of a tote board explosion. But the Derby is just one opportunity on a great card. Below are some thoughts and selections (some more detailed than others) for the Derby Day Stakes.
We will be running the gamut of Derby Day activities tomorrow—one of us will be live from Louisville, another will be covering the Hall of Fame party in Saratoga and a third will be pool side in Puerto Rico! So for up to the minute thoughts and adjustments based on scratches and how the track is playing, or for some rum fueled nonsensical tweets, follow us on Twitter @Thorobros. Good luck everyone!
Early Races: We were thinking of easing into the day, and waiting until the Stakes Races to jump into the action. But for those so inclined to play early and often, we are looking at you Senator McBurney, our Reisdent Old Bro and Thorobros National Handicapper provides the following quick hitting picks:
Race 1: 2, 3
Race 2: 2, 6 over 4, 5, 7
Race 3: 3, 5,7
Race 4: 5, 9 over 3, 6
Race 5: 9, 12
Ok. Now to the real races!
Race 6: The Humana Distaff
Top Picks: 2,5
Other Plays: 6, 7
This is not a very exciting race from a betting perspective. We suggest saving bullets, choking down the first of several mint juleps, and waiting until later in the day to do any serious betting. If Finest City is right, and we expect she is, she should win at a short odds.
Race 7: The Chruchill Distaff Turf Mile
Watch for turf conditions. We think it will still be listed as good for this race tomorrow—which means it still has some moisture in it.
Top Picks: 2, 4, 8
Other Plays: 3, 6, 7
The 4 Believe in Bertie is the wildcard. She will go right to the lead and open up on the field. But she’s facing her toughest test today, and we will see if she can hang on. If she’s 6-1 though, we think she’s worth a play on top.
Prize Exhibit comes east for this race, is third off the layoff (which often translates to a top performance), and has run very well on good turf. We like her to get a nice outside trip and try to run down Bertie. At 15-1, she offers good value.
Miss Temple City, owned by Kevin Plank, founder of Under Armor (fun fact), is a terrific racehorse and deserving favorite. She is a must use.
Race 8: The Pat Day Mile
Top Picks: 1, 4, 8, 12
Other Plays: 3, 5
This appears to be an open race. If playing a Pick 3, consider spreading wide here. Assuming the track plays honest, we like the 8 Wild Shot best. He turns back in distance and should be full of run—his last race dud we chalk up to a double x-o pattern, where a horse runs a great race, then backs off a little and then runs a dud two races later. We expect a top effort tomorrow. Bobby on Fleek made a nice 3 year old debut, could be a special horse and 10-1 is a great price. Want a real bomber? Try the 3 Rapid Dial at 30-1. Likely in too deep here, but he could get a piece.
Race 9: The American Turf
This starts the late all stakes Pick 4.
Top Picks: 2, 10
Other Plays: 4, 7, 8.
A nice betting race with no clear cut favorite. We like the 2 Big Score best. He ran a tremendous race to start his campaign and is now second off the layoff. If he repeats that effort, he should win at a decent odds. Good Samaritan ran some huge races last year. If he can improve, as many three year olds do, he will be very tough as well. Conquest Farenheit has a solid work pattern of 6f clips. So while he is stretching out, his works sure suggest he is a fit racehorse. His speed figures from past races are very competitive. Although he will have to contend with other speed, we like this horse a lot and could move him up to a top pick depending on how the track is playing.
Race 10: The Churchill Downs
Top Pick: 2
Other Plays: 1, 7, 9, 12, 13
For Pick 4’s this race has a single possibility, the 2 Masochistic could be lone inside speed and is the class of the race. If he gets loose, they will not catch him. To make some money here, consider using 30-1 bomber Solid Wager. He will need to stay closer to the front, but he loves this specialty distance of 7 furlongs and has some speed figures that are competitive.
Race 11: The Woodford Reserve
A competitive race where we could go a lot of different directions.
Top Picks: 6, 7, 8
Other Plays: 2, 4, 12, 3
We like the three 4 year olds (Beach Patrol, Oscar Nominated, and Ballagh Rocks) as offering a lot of upside. Often times a horse’s biggest improvement is from three to four. Beach Patrol is making the second start of his campaign off a solid debut. Ballagh Rocks also fired in his last effort and could move forward again for a trainer who carefully manages his younger horses. Oscar Nominated most recently put in a strong effort at this distance on soft turf. He is often the bridesmaid though, so consider using him underneath.
6- Bal a Bali is an interesting horse here. I’ve read a series of workout reports to suggest that they have him running between, inside and around horses. He should be primed to weave through traffic late. He’s had success on soft turf and loves to win 14-23 lifetime. He is headed east for the first time and at 7 years old, we are asking for a career best so there are some questions.
World Approval, although 5, also started the year off with a strong effort. This race may be shorter than his preferred distance but he is 6 for 8 in the exacta at 1m and 1/8th. I think he gets the lead and has to face Beach Patrol and Oscar Nominated making early runs.
Race 12: The Kentucky Derby 1 and ¼ Miles
Here we go! As mentioned above, this is a Derby where all of the favorites and logical winners have big question marks.
Classic Empire is a two year old champion (only one BC Juvenile winner has won the Derby—Classic Empire seeks to become the second) and is the most accomplished horse in the field. But the horse has the tendency to act up. 19 other horses and the biggest crowd of his life, which includes a packed paddock and circus walk to the track could lead this horse to come unraveled before he even steps foot in the gate. While his breeding is ok, it’s not ideal to get the 10 furlong distance. He should be used in triples and exactas, but at low odds, we recommend looking elsewhere for a top selection.
Always Dreaming may have the most talent in the field and owns arguably the most impressive last race effort. But he has had a hard time settling down during his morning works and he will not get the dream trip he had in the Florida Derby. How will he react if pressed? He’s also not exactly bred to run this far. We do not expect him to be around at the end of this race. Plus, his trainer Todd Pletcher has had issues in the Derby, despite one win. A horse coming off a career top, and fourth straight start without a break, is traditionally not the best time to bet a Pletcher horse. That said, we’d be sick if we miss the triple or a big exacta because we tossed this one. So we will use him defensively with our top pics.
So who do we actually like? Our top four horses, in this order, are Irish War Cry, Hence, Gunnevera and McCraken. Irish War Cry has one terrible race with no real excuse. If it wasn’t for that effort, he would be the superstar horse everyone was betting. Currently, by all accounts, the horse is doing fantastic. He drew perfectly, allowing him to sit an outside stalking trip (assuming the track plays fair tomorrow—it favored horses on the inside today). We like him to get first run on the speed horses and see if anyone can catch him.
Three horses we expect to be running hard at the end are Gunnevera, Hence and McCraken. While many predict a soft Derby pace, with 20 horses, the Derby pace is often more honest than most expect. We anticipate a very quick pace which sets up for a closer. Gunnevera is the most athletic horse in the race and if he does not allow himself to be too far back early, should be flying down the stretch. While everyone talks about Always Dreaming’s prep effort, the best prep effort we saw was from Hence. That effort was further vindicated when horses he beat came back to do very well in subsequent preps. If Hence can repeat that Sunland Derby effort, he wins…at double digit odds. Finally, there’s McKraken. 5-1 is a short price on this horse but we think Wilkes, a trainer known to have his horses ready to run their best on the biggest stage, has this one ready. The works have been fantastic and he’s bred to run all day.
Others we intend to use on some tickets are as follows: Looking at Lee and Sonneteer (yes, 50-1 Sonneteer) in third and fourth in triples and supers (and depending on how many juleps we consume, we’ll likely play Sonneteer on top of a few tickets) and then Girvin (training issues and distance limitations v. big money jockey and a surprisingly strong speed figure pattern) and Dubai mystery colt Thunder Snow in second and third with our top picks.
Good luck everyone, and may your Derby Day end up like this:
