Welcome to Indiana Derby Day! We are thrilled to assist TOBA by providing handicapping analysis and selections to its Ownership Seminar attendees. Below are our thoughts as provided at the seminar.
This is a very nice card put together by Indiana Grand with opportunities throughout. We have used a star system to indicate which races we believe present the best betting opportunities throughout the day (one star for races we aren’t as excited about and up to four stars for our best bets of the day).
Good luck everyone!
**Race 1—1 Mile (Turf) $32k Maiden Special Weight for fillies and mares
A friend of ours, who used to ride at this track, once said no racing community does a worse job at keeping a secret than Indiana Grand. If a horse is working out well in the morning and thought to be primed for a big effort, you can expect that horse will run at odds well below what he or she is listed at in the program. With that in mind, we urge you to watch the odds board and look for horses that open up well below their program price. It’s certainly not a guarantee to cash a ticket, but it likely means people are talking. In our experience, it’s more likely than not that the horse being bet down is very live. This is especially true in maiden races, such as this one. So if some 20-1 horse opens at 5/2, you’ve been warned!
Assuming nothing jumps out from the tote board, we’ve pegged Curricula as the most likely winner. She is an “honest” horse, running second or third in four out of five career starts. She also had a nice debut effort on the turf in her last race—posting a new top speed figure. Horses often improve second time turf, and if she does that, she should win. The addition of a top jockey also signals to us that she means business.
Cherrub looks to finally get a firm turf course. Her two prior efforts on a firm turf course resulted in her lone place effort and a speed figure top. This is second start after a layoff—usually a positive. Also, her trainer and jockey combination are winning at a rate of 35% this year.
Although the horses making their first start are a bit of an unknown, there does not figure to be a lot of speed upfront in this race. Thus, at 12-1, we like Honor Thy Munnings. She figures to go right to the lead and save ground hugging the rail. She finished second two races back under these exact same conditions.
$6 budget: $1 Exacta Box 1,3, 6
$10 Budget: $2 to win, place, and show 3 and $1 Exacta Box 3 with 1,6
*Race 2—1M (dirt) $32k Allowance, Optional Claiming (claiming price $25k).
We looked at this race from all the angles we could think of, and could not get away from the favorites. That said, of the three lowest prices, we like the longest of them, Whyruawesome, the best. Whyruawesome is 3-1, but has what appears to be a big pace advantage in the race. He should be out on the lead from the beginning with very little pressure from any of the other horses in the race. If he can get out on that lead, we like his chances of hanging on.
Second, we like Fire Mission for owner Maggi Moss. Please note that Fire Mission is coupled with Easy Roller, but Easy Roller came in third in the Eighth Race at Indiana Grand on Thursday and will be scratched. Fire Mission should be able to sit right behind Whyruawesome and should get the first crack at him. Those two could hook up in a duel down to the wire which would be a win-win for us.
Third, we like the favorite Seeking the Soul. Seeking the Soul ran in the Belmont this year, and therefore has some name recognition and may be overbet as a result. That said, he fits really well in this field, and runs for a good trainer (Dallas Stewart) who likely placed him here to get a win. The horse does only have one win, however, is coming off getting absolutely shellacked in the Belmont, and likes to come from off the pace. We think he may need this race before regaining his best form.
$6 budget: $1 trifecta box 1,2,7
$22 budget: $5 win and place 7, $2 trifecta box 1,2,7.
****Race 3— 1 mile and 1/16th –Indiana General Assembly Distaff $100k, Fillies and Mares four y/o and up
This little stakes race features a deserving favorite in Cash Control. But as we often do, we will look to beat the favorite with a more square price in 10-1 Lovely Loyree. Her back races are just as good as the favorite’s and we think this spot sets up well for her as she is one of the few horses with early speed. Her recent workouts look promising as well.
For value, we will use Dynazar, who appears to be improving. It’s a good sign that visiting top jockey Leparoux decides to ride.
$6 Budget: $1 Exacta box 7, 1, 4
$20 Budget: $5 exacta box 7,1; $5 double 7,1 with 6
**Race 4—5f $32k Allowance
Not the most profitable selection, but we were very impressed with Unincornio’s last effort. We are willing to give him an excuse in his first race, and he returned off a layoff to run huge. If he improves again or even repeats that effort, he wins easily.
To try to add some value, we will use Express Cash on our tickets. We know, we know, he’s lost his last two races by a combined 75 lengths. But two back, he tried stakes company at a distance longer than he likely wants to run—so his 50 plus length loss is somewhat explainable. In his last race the connections took off his blinkers, and he again faltered. He’s now back at 6f, away from stakes company, and gets back the blinkers. His first two efforts were quite good. At 15-1, we’ll hope his team has rediscovered the recipe for success.
Similarly, we will overlook Stronger Than Thee’s last race where he encountered all sorts of trouble. He was impressive two back leading from wire to wire. As an added bonus, you will also get Thee’s stable mate, as he is a coupled entry with Slew Who.
$6 Budget: $1 Tri 6/1, 8, 3
$24 Budget $2 exacta box 6,8,1; $4 win, place, and show on 8
****Race 5 – 1 1/16 miles (turf) The Warrior Veterans — $100k Stakes Race, 4 yo and up.
This is a really fun race that may offer very good betting opportunities. There is a fairly significant favorite in this race, Pleuven, who is 2-1 on the morning line. We are going to take a stand against Pleuven, which should open up some value at the top of the ticket (although it might not be a bad idea to play Pleuven in third or fourth if you play trifectas or superfectas just in case). Pleuven has run a nice set of three races, but they look similar to his set of three races before that, after which he had to take a more than 1 year break. We are betting that his last race was his best effort, and that he will regress in this spot today.
Therefore, we like 15-1 shot Watchyourownbobber. This horse should control the pace on the front end, and probably needed the last race after coming back from a second place effort in Barbados. The connections could not be better, with Luis Saez in the saddle and Mike Maker doing the training. If this horse is anything close to 15-1, we think he represents great value.
We also like Thatcher Street. This horse is remarkably consistent, and has finished first, second or third in 17 of 22 lifetime starts. That’s the kind of horse we like to see, particularly if we can get 4-1 on our money. Additionally, this gelding has raced at this distance six times, and has finished first, second or third all six times. Ian Wilkes training and Brian Hernandez riding add to the appeal.
Finally, we like Dac and Flashlight. Both of these horses fit from a speed perspective and offer great value (10-1 and 15-1 respectively). Both seem to be coming into the race well and have won at this distance. That said, this race is wide open, and it may make sense to go fairly deep if you play trifectas or superfectas. As referenced above, we would recommend including Pleuven if he is within your budget. Conquest Typhoon falls into that category as well.
$6 budget: $2 win 6; $2 exacta box 5-6
$22 budget: .50 trifecta 5,6 with 5,6,8 with 1,5,6,7,8,9 ($8 total); $2 exacta box 5,6; $5 win and place on 6.
*Race 6—1 Mile and 1/16th The Mary Hulman George, fillies and mares 3yo and up
This stakes race features a strong and deserving favorite in Brooklynsway, who is dropping down in competition after previously being very competitive in top graded stakes company. She is the clear class of the field and the most likely winner.
If anyone can beat the favorite, we think it’s the local favorite Lady Fog Horn who has won 6 of 10 starts at Indiana Grand.
We also like Pangburn, who is running for the second time after a rest. She has also battled top competition and could run well against this group.
$10 Budget: $10 win 1
$22 Budget: $1 Pick 3: 1,7/ 1,3,5,8/ 2,3 ($16); $1 Tri Box 1, 5, 7 ($6)
***Race 7—1 Mile and 70 yards The Michael G. Schaefer Memorial–$100k Stakes Race, 3 yo and up
There are plenty of directions you could go in this very competitive stakes race. This may be stating the obvious, but in stakes races in particular, we like to look for horses that win often. Departing is a very honest horse, but he hasn’t won in his last 8 starts. Rocket Time, however, has won 3 of his last five and more than half of his 13 career starts. He has a knack for finding the wire. His speed numbers fit and we think he gets first run at what should be a quick pace up front. We do like Departing underneath and think any exotics also need to include General A Rod.
For value, we look to last year’s runner up in this race, Geothermal. He ran a nice race last out, closing into relatively slow fractions. He should have a hotter pace to run at on Saturday.
$6 Budget: $6 to win 5
$12 Budget: $1 Tri 5,8/5, 8, 3, 1/ 5, 8, 3, 1
Pick 3 Wager: 5, 8, 3, 1/ 2, 3/ 2, 4, 5, 6, 12 ($20 for a .50 bet)
***Race 8 – 1 1/16 Miles (dirt) Grade 2 Indiana Oaks ($200k)
This is one of the two main events on the card. This race is for three year old fillies going a mile and a sixteenth on the Indiana Grand main track. The race attracted a good group of horses, including Dream Dance, who ran in the Kentucky Oaks and Dothraki Queen, who ran in the Black Eyed Susan and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. But the horse we like best in here is a newcomer to stakes races, Mines and Magic. This debuted over turf at Keeneland last September, and made a huge move late in a race that was won by a very nice turf competitor in Airoforce. She was then off until April of this year, when she came in a very nice second to Conquest Serenade in a maiden race at Keeneland. She won going away in her next start, breaking her maiden at Churchill Downs, and immediately won again in a first level allowance at Churchill. Up to this point, the longest she has run is a one turn mile at Churchill, and today she gets an extra sixteenth of a mile around two turns. She should be able to sit just behind the pace and get first run. And she should absolutely appreciate the distance and the layout – her parents are Mineshaft and Magical Theater, who is a daughter of Smart Strike (Smart Strike sired Curlin, English Channel, Lookin at Lucky, and My Miss Aurelia, among others). She is 10-1 on the morning line.
We also like Dothraki Queen. This horse likes to do most of her best running late, and she may get a nice pace to run into here, as Sweet Legacy, Emmzy and Family Tree should be running fast early. Dothraki Queen’s last two races were over a mile and an eighth, so she should have the fitness to be flying late over this slightly shorter trip.
Finally, we like Dream Dance. This horse will come from just a bit off the pace, and she has competitive speed figures. She fits well here, and has the class test from two races back (the Kentucky Oaks) to help. She has only won twice in eleven starts, however, which is why she will be in the second and third slots on our ticket.
Emmzy and Family Tree are two of the faster horses in the race, but they both like to lead from the time the gates open, as does longshot Sweet Legacy. We are betting on the pace going quickly, and causing these horses to tire. That said, it may be worth including all three in second and third position if you are playing exactas and trifectas, just in case one of them holds on late.
$6 budget: $4 win 3; $1 exacta box 2-3
$18 budget: $3 win, place and show on 3; $1 trifecta 3 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,6,7.
****Race 9—1 Mile and 1/16th Grade 2 Indiana Derby–$500k 3yo
The main event. This is a great betting race, especially because we find both favorites vulnerable. The favorite is Preakness Stakes runner up Cherry Wine. That effort was in the slop though, a surface he relishes, and it figures to be dry come post time for this one. Also, the pace in here does not figure to be anywhere near that of what Nyquist set in the Preakness, another factor that doesn’t favor the favorite. We think he’s a play underneath at best.
On top, we like the improving colt The Player. He seems to be peaking for this race and figures to sit a stalking trip right behind the front runners. Unfortunately, we expect he will be bet down from his 6-1 morning line odds.
Cherry Wine’s stablemate Takeittotheedge warrants consideration. Most would think he’s entered to ensure a solid pace for Cherry Wine. However, this horse has some ability and also fits one of our favorite handicapping angles– playing the longer odds of an uncoupled entry. At 15-1, we will definitely use this horse here in hopes he leads the field from start to finish.
To add a bomb to our tickets, we will also include Cocked and Loaded. This horse showed much promise at 2, and while he has struggled in 2016, he was given some time off and had a sneaky good race in the Ohio Derby. Perhaps he’s rounding back into form and at 30-1, why not?
As an aside, we are big fans of Star Hill, picking this horse on top in his last two starts. We don’t love him here, given that he likes to run from far back, but we’ll be damned if he wins today and we didn’t play him.
$6 Budget: $1 Exacta Box 4, 5, 2
$22 Budget: $.50 Tri 4,5/ 4,5,2, 12/ 4, 5, 2, 6, 11, 12 ($12); $5 win 5 and $5 show 6
***Race 10—5 ½ Furlongs Maiden Special Weight, Indiana State Breds
Just because the Indiana Derby is over, doesn’t mean it’s time to leave the races quite yet. On paper, Saturday Tryst looks like a deserving favorite. He had a very strong debut where he faded right at the wire. He now has a race under his belt and cuts back in distance. However, that debut was in the mud, a condition in which he’s bred to run well. To try to beat him, we will use our favorite sneaky angle—a second time starter who debuted starting from the rail.
Brook’s Bay B was bet in his debut but drew the rail. He did rally late to pass some horses and make up ground on the leaders. Young horses often don’t run well inside others, so today, perhaps, we’ll see a better effort from Brook as he should get an outside trip.
Besides one lackluster start in the mud, Flashin Theflowers has had three quality starts. He and the favorite are likely to go right to lead, and maybe set up the race for an off the pace horse like Brook.
On name alone, we really wanted to get Drunk Uncle on our tickets—but we failed to come up with any angle we could list on here with a straight face.
$6 Budget: $3 exacta box 7, 10
$18 Budget: $1 Tri 7,10/ 7, 10, 4, 9/ 7,10, 4, 9; $2 win, place, show 7.
