The Oaks Pick 4 holds a special place in Thorobros lore. In 2011, we had a giant score lined up as St. John’s River came charging down the Churchill Downs stretch, and had Plum Pretty absolutely nailed. Unfortunately, the wire came before St. John’s River could finish the deal. Last year, however — redemption. As Lovely Maria came flying down the lane, we put the finishing touches on a near cold pick 4 — we had hit it with all As—an $8 ticket. Celebration ensued, mint and bourbon flowed. But now we are coming back for more. Two in a row. Here we go!
Race 8 — The Twin Spires Turf Sprint — G3 — 5f (T) — $150,000
This is the first in a very deep sequence of four races, and one in which we came up with 3 A horses and 3 B horses. Our As are Summation Time, Hootenany and Something Extra. Our Bs are Rocket Heat and Alsvid. Summation Time is our top choice in here. The connections of Clement and Castellano are top notch, and this horse looks ready to fire second off a layoff and after a good effort in the Shakertown at Keeneland where he finished 4th, but beaten only two lengths after a less than perfect stretch trip. There should be plenty of pace for him to run at, and even though he comes from off the pace he has two wins and two seconds at this short 5 furlong distance, so he won’t be compromised by the sprint length. He’s the pick. Hootenany doesn’t race all that often, but when he does he is all class, having run in the money 7 times in 8 starts, including wins in at Royal Ascot and in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He’s two for two at today’s 5 furlong distance and comes second off the layoff for Johnny V and Wesley Ward. We were hoping for better than the 7/2 morning line given that he is actually a touch slower than some of these others, but we will see what the tote says on Friday afternoon. Our final A is Something Extra. This one just missed in the Shakertown, getting nailed by Undrafted in the shadow of the wire. He has been training like an absolute beast for Gail Cox since then and owns 5 in the money finishes from 8 starts at this 5 furlong distance (albeit with just one win). Shaun Bridgmohan is going to have to work out a trip from the 11 hole, but if he can, this horse might not be denied this time around.
A couple notes on our B horses. In a 5 furlong race, it probably is a positive play to get on the speed of the speed, if you can find it. We think that might be Rocket Heat breaking from the 4 post under Flavien Prat. At 12/1, he might be worth a look. Alsvid has been running in dirt sprints, but his last effort over the sod was here at the Downs, and he put up a credible number. He is fast enough to win, but we honestly cannot figure out what his trainer is doing in this spot. He has been absolutely lighting up the workout tab, so if he fires first time back on the green stuff, he could definitely make some noise.
A’s: 2, 7, 11
B’s: 4, 6
Race 9—Alysheba G2 1 mile and 1/16th
The Alysheba may be where we single. In a race with many front running types, the quickest numbers belong to Eagle, whose style fits perfectly. We expect him to sit back and pick off horses down the stretch. Reports are that he’s been doing great in the morning. Great record at the distance. All systems go. We also like Noble Bird here. Lots of speed signed on but perhaps he can get first run. He almost pulled the upset last year, and has run well at Churchill. He seems to be rounding back into his 2015 form.
Our B Team starts with Top Billing. We like his running style here, but he appears a step slow. He has been improving this year, but we are asking a lot for a five year old to run a career top. But at 10-1, in a race short on value, he needs to be on a B ticket. Majestic Affair is stretching out but back to the distance where he’s 2 for 2. He needs to be near the lead, which could be his undoing in this race.
A’s: 4, 5
B’s: 6,7
Race 10: Edgewood Stakes — G3 — 1 1/16 Miles (T) — $150,000
This is a deep, contentious race. Our A horses are Harmonize, Ava’s Kitten and Catch a Glimpse. Our Bs are Nodiac, Auntie Joy, Jeremy’s Legacy and Believe in Bertie.
We will start at the rail with Harmonize. This filly is coming off a nice win in a listed stake at Gulfstream, and stretching out to a distance that she loves, having grabbed two wins and a second in three starts. Bill Mott has been hot recently, and her work tab indicates that she is primed for this spot. Mott scores 25% of the time In a sample of 118 starters with second off the layoff types like here, with a positive ROI. 4/1 morning line is not bad either. Catch a Glimpse and Ava’s Kitten were 1-2 respectively in the Appalachian at Keeneland, and both wheel right back here to butt heads again. Ava’s Kitten was not really in the hunt for the win, and Catch a Glimpse is clearly the one to beat here. But Catch a Glimpse is breaking from the 10 post, and if she gets hung wide or Florentine Geroux can’t work out a trip, it might open things up for Ava’s Kitten.
On to our Bs, which is a little bit more fun in this case (we landed on the logical ones for the A column). First, we can cover Nodiac and Jeremy’s Legacy together. Both of these west coast invaders are cutting back from the G3 1 1/8 stake on Santa Anita Derby day over yielding turf. Both started their careers in Ireland, but neither have run outside of Southern California since coming over from the Emerald Isle. Further, the two have only two wins total in 14 starts. Those facts were enough to downgrade them to B status. Next is Believe in Bertie. This horse is a turf route speedball with a win and a second in two starts at this distance. In both starts she cleared the field and was loose on the lead for as long as she could hold on. She will be doing the same thing on Oaks day, except the water is deeper. It’s one thing to hold off maidens and allowance company, it’s quite another to deny the likes of Catch a Glimpse. If speed is holding on turf early in the card, however, give her a good hard look. Finally, we have Auntie Joy. This is our favorite B horse, particularly at 30/1. The trainer/jockey stats jump off the page (small sample size, but still), and the horses figure pattern indicates a strong move forward. Will it be enough? We aren’t sure, but if we get anything close to the morning line, we are happy to lay some money in order to find out.
A’s: 1, 5, 10
B’s: 3, 4, 6, 9
Race 11—The Kentucky Oaks 1 mile and 1/8th
Make no mistake about it, this is the Thorobros favorite race. And while we would have loved to see Songbird perform, her absence makes this a great betting race. Last year, we had a strong opinion in Lovely Maria. We don’t have such an opinion this year.
Our A team boasts four fillies. Let’s start with the Ashland runners up who dueled each other out of contention—Rachel Valentina and Cathryn Sophia. It looked as though JV and JJ hooked up way too early thinking that they only had to beat the other to win the race. Weep No More had other ideas. These two won’t make the same mistake. And I think both will be more primed than they were for this prep. Rachel is now second off the layoff, and may have needed the Ashland. Cathryn Sophia could have bounced after her impressive Davona Dale effort. She’s working great and getting high praise from DRF Clocker Welsch. Distance may be her issue but her turn of foot is the most devastating in the race. If you force us to pick a winner, it’s Cathryn.
We also like Land Over Sea. This filly finally shook Songbird and won at Fairgrounds. Her last name number was very strong. She looks potentially bouncy, but maybe she’s just peaking at the right time.
Our final A team entry is Lewis Bay. Another filly on the improve. While she was beat soundly by Cathryn, it was a strange ride by Irad. He stood up in the reigns as if he thought he had Cathryn measured. By the time he sat her down, Cathryn was gone. She rebounded with a nice score in a sloppy Gazelle. Good value though so we’ll A team her.
B Team starts with Royal Obsession—the longer odds of the uncoupled Asmsussen entry. 1 for 1 at Churchill. Second off the layoff and was closing at the Gazelle in the slop. Now she gets an extra panel. At 20-1, get excited.
The Oaks wildcard is Go Maggie Go. A horse full of potential but short on experience. In case she’s a complete freak, we are using her.
A’s: 3, 11, 12, 13
B’s: 4, 8
Good luck everyone! And follow us all day for updates.
