Happy Whitney Day everyone! A classic Saratoga race with a who’s who list of alumni and racing memories. If history repeats itself, there’s a great chance—with a apologies to a certain Triple Crown winner—that the Breeder’s Cup Classic champ will be running in the 9th Race at Saratoga today.
We had a successful Whitney Day 2014 thanks solely to Moreno’s front running efforts. We’re hoping to repeat our success and expand it to the day’s other stakes races. It won’t be easy though—these races are all very competitive. We’re up for the challenge, however, and below are our thoughts on this year’s Whitney as well as the other stakes in races 7 through 10.
Race 7 – The De La Rose – 1M (inner turf) for Fillies and Mares 4YO and up — $100,000
6-9-11-5
This is a really deep and difficult race, but that makes it a great betting race. In the top spot we are going with J Wonder, an improving 4 year old filly for Shug McGaughey. This horse is getting significant class relief from his last effort, the G1 Just A Game on Belmont Stakes Day, and has had a two-month freshening since then, and she has won off the layoff in the past as her 2014 debut race shows. Her running style also appears to fit the race, she seems like she wants to stalk the leaders and hopefully get first run on Daring Kathy and Miss Frost. She fits from a figure perspective, and while there is some concern that she hasn’t visited the winners’ circle in a year, her 5/1 morning line entices.
In second we have Daring Kathy. This horse is 3 for 4 at a flat mile, and has the highest last out Beyer speed figure. She just barely held on at this trip and at this class level last time, however, and this field is a little tougher than the Perfect Sting group that she faced back on Stars and Stripes weekend. That said, she shouldn’t have a ton of pace pressure (though she will have some) and she is clearly the speed of the speed. I like her to get passed in the shadow of the wire and fill out your exactas and trifectas.
I really like Ticking Katie, but I am concerned that she is going to be stuck with a really wide trip given her running style and post position. This one has had a very nice work pattern since an impressive winning debut in North America on June 17. She got a little breather, which has been a positive ROI angle for trainer Brian Lynch, and should stand to improve in her second effort on this side of the pond. Luis Saez adds to the appeal, as he is hitting the board with nearly 40% of his mounts at this Saratoga meeting.
Finally, Stellar Path is a solid and consistent horse. She has come in the money in 7 of her 11 starts at a mile, and gets some class relief after a solid third place effort up at Woodbine. She had tactical speed, but I have concern about her being marooned in the 12 post. She picks up Rosario, who has had hit for a good percentage with Clement, but she will have to get very lucky to take home top honors today.
Bomber alert—A Little Bit Sassy has an every other pattern going and is headed towards a good effort. Her speed figure from last year at the Spa is good enough to win this race. Matz is 61% in the money the last three years at Toga in Turf Routes.
Race 8–The Test—7f 3YO Fillies—Grade 1–$500,000
1-2-3-7
The Test is a Thorobros favorite race and, on paper, we are very excited about this edition. Although second choice in the morning line, BC Juvenile Fillies champ Take Charge Brandi is the headliner. Coming off the layoff though, at a distance shorter than she prefers, with other speed in the race, and Lukas’ subpar Saratoga numbers that last three seasons—we are looking elsewhere.
For horizontal wagers, we’ll likely go four deep here: 1, 2, 3, and 7. We like any of those four horses on top, but if forced to choose, we’ll go with Irish Jasper to win. 7 furlongs, more than any other distance, in our opinion, is a specialty and we value wins at the distance. Irish Jasper is 2 for 2 at 7f. She’s won three straight and six of nine overall. Castellano is 2 for 4 at the Spa for Derek Ryan (who trained all time T-Bro favorite Musket Man). With a decent pace up front, we hope to be dancing the Irish jig as this one is making moves late.
Cavorting is the favorite and if she repeats her Jersey Girl effort—the fastest Rags number of any horse in the race—she wins. McLaughlin and Irad are almost 40% at Toga the last three meets. There is concern she bounces off the last race, and as the favorite that may be enough to toss her, but she had time off and the running style and training angles support her. She also has a Toga win last year in the Adirondack which was super impressive.
That leaves us with the two Nevin trainees—By The Moon and So You Say. The former is more battle tested, boasts the longer odds of the uncoupled entry, has a Saratoga win, and figures to get first run. We like the mild turn back and figure she sits right behind her stablemate and TCB.
So You Say has fast rag numbers in sprints and if you put your finger over the try at a mile, looks very strong. But that 1M race was also one turn and it’s possible she just bounced, in which case she may bounce again off a similar effort last out. She is the speed of the speed though and if TCB takes back or isn’t herself, Johnny V could be gunning by himself.
Race 9 – The Whitney – 1M 1/8 Dirt – 3&) and up — $1,250,000
7-9-2-10
This is the main event, and the field sure turned up a strong one. Basically every horse worth his weight as a Grade 1 horse on the East Coast is here. This deep, tough field means that there is money to be made here today.
Lea is the selection here. He is coming off a game second to Noble Bird in the Stephen Foster, which was his first effort since coming back from the taxing trip to Dubai, where he was third against the world’s best. Bill Mott is white hot at this Saratoga meeting, and it seems that this race has been the plan since coming back from the Middle East. He fits from a figure perspective, and has the tactical speed to put himself in the right spot to get first run on Moreno, Coach Inge (who word is will likely pass on this race) and Liam’s Map.
In second, it’s Wicked Strong. This horse needs more than the mile of ground he has been getting in his last two starts. His last race, over turf, was just a prep for this spot, and I think Jimmy Jerkens just wanted to get the race in him while seeing how he could handle the green. He has a win and a second in two starts at Saratoga, and should be primed for his best effort today. Is his best good enough to get a placing with this group? I don’t know, but at 20-1, I’ll bet on Wicked Strong.
Third, I like Tonalist. Tonalist is a very consistent horse, and usually brings a good effort. I expect nothing less today, though I think the pace scenario of the race is going to doom him to a third place finish. I think, over a mile and an eighth, Tonalist is the best of the closing group, but I think he will be at a disadvantage compared to the top two mentioned here, who should get the first shot to take the race if Moreno and Liam’s Map run one another off their feet.
Finally, I am including Normandy Invasion at a huge price. I know the last two have been less than stellar, but it’s clear that this race was the goal all along, and his most recent race was better than the 94 Beyer would suggest. I am not sure whether this guy can win, but I think he has a real chance to fill out the vertical exotics at a huge price.
A Couple Notes: It kills me to not include Moreno in these picks. I love Moreno, and will be rooting for him, but I think the presence of two other clear pace horses in this race make him a tough bet today. If Coach Inge does scratch, however, and Pletcher heeds to Guillot’s warning that Moreno is gunning no matter what, the Ragin Cajun could be loose again. Maybe that’s wishful thinking.
Also, Honor Code was an absolute beast in the Met Mile. I am not sure whether a mile and an eighth is his game, but the pace scenario sets up for him, and it will be really scary to leave him off some of my bigger tickets.
Race 10—The Waya—12f 3YO and up (T) fillies and mares
10-11-1-8
A turf test of champions, the Waya is an endurance battle. This year’s edition is light on speed and full of stalkers so we expect a relatively bunched up group and an exciting finish.
While many horses make sense here, we like the two outsiders the best– Kitten’s Point and Danza Cavallo—who on the rags both boast field best 7’s two races back. At 6-1, we’ll put the Kitten on top. She has two wins at the distance, is second off the layoff for Motion, and figures to sit just off the leader. She was moving well late but ran out of green in her last at Delaware. She gets extra ground here and could turn the tables on Queen’s Parade. She paired 7’s before running a nine off the shelf. We like her to move forward here.
Danza figures to be a short price trained by Titan of the Turf Chad Brown with Ortiz on board. Like Kitten, she also has success at 12f sporting a solid five for five record in the exacta. Her best North American effort was two back when she was coming off the shelf. She’ll be doing the same here and could be poised for a big effort for a barn with excellent turf route numbers at Saratoga.
The pace is the main concern for Danza. It figures to be uncontested up front with only Danza’s stablemate, Golden Estony, showing any propensity to go the lead. She is slightly slower on speed figures but has a win at the distance, is the “other” Chad Brown, and is second off the layoff. Plus look at that 41% win clip for Brown/Carmouche.
While again pace is the concern, White Rose is the most consistent horse in the field, owning multiple efforts from a speed figure standpoint which would get the job done here. She’s 1 for 1 at Toga and reunites with Bridgmohan who seems to fit her best and piloted her to two wins last year. Her last work was very solid. It appears she’ll be sitting on a top effort for Mott.
Good luck, everyone!
