Since Affirmed beat Alydar yet again to take the Triple Crown in 1978, 13 horses have come to Belmont with a chance to join the most exclusive club in Thoroughbred Racing. Now its American Pharoah’s turn. In the words of George Santayana, “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” American Pharoah has a lot of take-aways from the last 13 failed Triple Crown attempts. It might be June, but for American Pharoah, school is in session.
American Pharoah’s lesson for today: If ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Stay the course. Don’t change anything.
In 1987, Alysheba roared into New York looking to end a nearly ten year Triple Crown void. He looked improved and unbeatable after impressive Kentucky Derby and Preakness victories followed the colt’s esophagus surgery in March of his three year old campaign. Yet, upon closer inspection, the informed betting public knew there could be an issue with Sheba’s shot at Belmont. In 1987, Lasix was a banned substance in New York. Thus, if ‘Sheba wanted to win the Triple Crown, he had to do so without the medication. Alysheba was 3 for 4 in his career, prior to the Belmont, with Lasix. He had lost eight of nine starts without it. Alysheba’s trainer, Jack Van Berg, insisted his horse didn’t need Lasix, and they only added it as a precaution following his March throat surgery. He finished a distant fourth, behind the 14 length winner, Bet Twice, a horse Alysheba had defeated twice with Lasix. Obviously no fault of Alysheba’s connections for being forced to run the horse without the elixir, but the message is still loud and clear—you don’t want to make changes before the Belmont.
California Chrome’s connections were well aware of this history last year, threatening to skip the Belmont if NYRA enforced the no nasal strip policy. In wake of that threat, NYRA gave permission for Chrome to wear the strip, but it didn’t matter, as Chrome was stepped on at the start and finished fourth.
In 2008, Big Brown looked unstoppable as he stepped foot on Big Sandy. While many remember his foot issues as the likely demise, Dutrow also made several changes that week. Brown missed several days of galloping because of his foot. Dutrow did not give Big Brown his scheduled dose of steroids. He also removed Brown’s “vitamin jug.” In response, Dutrow stated that Brown was “picture perfect” and he didn’t want to “mess” with anything. Maybe he messed with too much?
On the flip side, 1999 featured the well documented change that was never made—Lukas’ decision not to remove Chris Antley from Charismatic. As depicted by ESPN’s 30 for 30, Lukas had concerns before the Belmont that the undisputedly talented Antley was battling old demons. There were even rumors that Antley partied all night on Belmont eve and then headed straight for the barns. Regardless, Antley stayed on the horse who finished a game third. Notably, it was Antley’s quick thinking that many credit for saving Charismatic’s life, as he hopped off the colt just past the finish line when he felt something was amiss.
So what does all of this mean for American Pharoah? Certainly his camp should avoid making any major changes in the days leading up to the Belmont. No change in race tactics. No major equipment changes. And maintain the same personnel for works, gallops, grooming, etc. So far, there do not seem to be any concerns that team Baffert will change anything. He sent Pharoah back to Churchill where he trained before the Derby and Preakness. We haven’t heard of any potential equipment changes. The only slight change noticed so far is the decision to ship AP to Belmont on Tuesday, a day earlier than planned and a day earlier than he shipped to Baltimore. Probably a minor change, and given the media circus, perhaps a good idea to give a skittish horse an extra day in his new environment.
On a similar note, however, is the current public criticism that Baffert isn’t changing anything in his preparation plans from his last three failed triple crown bids. If ain’t broke, don’t fix it—but what it already broke three times? Same goes for the jockey, Victor Espinoza, who has had gate issues with both his shots at a Triple Crown. Will he change anything in his approach? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain, any changes and moves by team Pharoah will be well documented, and well celebrated if he wins, but heavily questioned if he loses.
