Since Affirmed beat Alydar yet again to take the Triple Crown in 1978, 13 horses have come to Belmont with a chance to join the most exclusive club in Thoroughbred Racing. Now its American Pharoah’s turn. In the words of George Santayana, “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” American Pharoah has a lot of take-aways from the last 13 failed Triple Crown attempts. It might be June, but for American Pharoah, school is in session.
Just like that. In a split second, it can be over. Years, months, weeks of preparation, down the drain in the blink of an eye. One of the biggest moments for American Pharoah on Saturday will be the split second when the gates open and he takes his first few strides. As the old cliche goes, Pharoah can’t win the race in those few strides, but he certainly can lose it. In fact, we’ve seen in before.
War Emblem was never really supposed to be in the Belmont starting gate with a chance to join Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Secretariat among the racing immortals. War Emblem was a one dimensional front runner, and was sent away from the gate in the Kentucky Derby as a 21-1 longshot. He got it done on the front end, however, pulling off a feat that has rarely been duplicated in the modern era — winning the Kentucky Derby while leading at every call.
He pulled off a similar trick in Baltimore, rating three wide just off the early lead, then pulling away and holding on for the win. Then it was on to New York, and on to the mile and a half Belmont. While most people assume that the longer the race, the harder it becomes for a horse to win on the lead, the Belmont has an interesting history in this regard. Most Belmont winners are not deep closers, but rather horses that run on or near the lead. While War Emblem certainly would have been an unlikely Triple Crown winner, provided he got a good leading or stalking trip, they would have to run him down in the lane. And War Emblem was tough as nails.
His trainer, Bob Baffert, described the horse as “irritable.” He did not like being behind horses, and did not like getting dirt kicked in his face on bit. His jockey, Victor Espinoza, knew that War Emblem had to be on the front end, and loaded in the gate knowing that the break was all-important for their Triple Crown chances. Those names will be at the forefront again on Saturday, as those are the same two gentlemen responsible for getting American Pharoah home first in the 2015 Belmont.
Once the gates opened in 2002, however, War Emblem’s Triple Crown chances were DOA.
War Emblem broke from the back of the pack. Medaglia d’Oro and Wiseman’s Ferry jumped to the lead, and took control of the race. War Emblem was pushed to the back of the pack, dirt kicked in his face, horses surrounding him. The other riders race rode him and Victor Espinoza, trapping him in tight spots and making him even more uncomfortable. When it came time for the stretch drive, War Emblem had nothing left, finishing a well beaten 8th place. But in reality, it had been over long before that, as War Emblem was left with little or no chance from as soon as the gates opened.
There is an interesting recent addendum to this lesson, coming from last year’s Belmont Stakes renewal. Victor Espinoza once again came to Belmont on the prospective Triple Crown hero, this time California Chrome. While Chrome was hardly as one-dimensional as War Emblem, he definitely liked to race up front, did not like to get into tight spaces, and liked to control the race. The start was once again of paramount importance. Although Larry Collmus noted that Chrome appeared to exit the gate well, replays later revealed that Chrome got stepped on leaving the gate, resulting in a significant gash on his foreleg. Yet again, the start had played a role in dashing Victor Espinoza’s chances at a Triple Crown.
Will the third time be a charm? Certainly, I believe that American Pharoah is better than both California Chrome and War Emblem. He also appears to have more versatility in terms of running style, though his mettle has yet to be tested in tight racing conditions. Will the other riders in this year’s Belmont race ride against Victor and Pharoah? I think its likely. Therefore, yet again, it is of the utmost importance for American Pharoah to get out of the gate and secure a good position in the field. All can be lost at the start, something American Pharoah’s jockey knows all too well. Given Victor Espinoza’s prior experiences at Belmont, I expect that he will be focused intently on the break and in securing a solid position for American Pharoah — which could be the thing that finally breaks the Triple Crown drought.
